2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Seems like the GFS prefers development in the GOM.

One of these model have to give in.

[gatorcane]

I am leaning towards development in the EPAC instead of GOM/Caribbean side

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,12z Euro weaker with the development.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF seems to be very erratic over the timing of this future system. Support is strong from the ECMWF/UKMEt and the EPS ensembles, but has zero support from the GFS/GEFS.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of the low is possible by early
next week as the system moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

CMC really wants to make up for a lackluster June. Shows 4-6 storms in 240 hours lol.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS actually has an EPAC storm around day 9 that was previously in the GOM.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of the low is possible by early
next week as the system moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible by
early next week while the low moves to the west or west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[HurricaneRyan]

When was the last time no storms formed during May or June?

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time no storms formed during May or June?

1969.

Never in the reliable record.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWf





12z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditons are expected to become somewhat conducive for slow
development of this system early next week while the low moves to
the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

That system the Euro is showing near 140W has support from the CMC. Euro has also been pretty persistent about it.

Thinking we need a tag for that area.

Also GFS has another system becoming a hurricane in the long range. Something to watch for.

[RL3AO]

Its worth noting that storms very rarely form in the western part of the EPAC during June. This system has climatology fighting it.

[Kingarabian]

Its worth noting that storms very rarely form in the western part of the EPAC during June. This system has climatology fighting it.

Agreed.

Euro also shows marginal upper level conditions as well.

[Yellow Evan]

That system the Euro is showing near 140W has support from the CMC. Euro has also been pretty persistent about it.

Is that not the 10/30 area?

[Kingarabian]

That system the Euro is showing near 140W has support from the CMC. Euro has also been pretty persistent about it.

Is that not the 10/30 area?

Yeah it is.

We need a yellow marker for that hurricane it's been showing though.

[Yellow Evan]

That system the Euro is showing near 140W has support from the CMC. Euro has also been pretty persistent about it.

Is that not the 10/30 area?

We need a yellow marker for that hurricane it's been showing though.

Agreed, given the ECMWF is developing this closer and closer to the 5 day timeframe.