2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[perk]

srainhoutx that was a great post about the obvious bias on this board for the Euro.Unfortunately it will be ignored in this forum.

[WPBWeather]

srainhoutx that was a great post about the obvious bias on this board for the Euro.Unfortunately it will be ignored in this forum.

Should we call a temporary "Brexit" from the Euro??

[tarheelprogrammer]

srainhoutx that was a great post about the obvious bias on this board for the Euro.Unfortunately it will be ignored in this forum.

Should we call a temporary "Brexit" from the Euro??

All in favor of a Eurexit say I......

I

[hurricanehunter69]

I'd still bet on development in the W Carrib or gulf in the 1st 10 days of July. ( too lazy to support why)

[Hammy]

I'd still bet on development in the W Carrib or gulf in the 1st 10 days of July. ( too lazy to support why)

Super long range model interestingly has for the last several days been indicating a storm originating either in the W Carib or Bahamas affecting the SE Coast around that time.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd still bet on development in the W Carrib or gulf in the 1st 10 days of July. ( too lazy to support why)

Super long range model interestingly has for the last several days been indicating a storm originating either in the W Carib or Bahamas affecting the SE Coast around that time.

Is it possible to post graphics?

[Hammy]

I'd still bet on development in the W Carrib or gulf in the 1st 10 days of July. ( too lazy to support why)

Super long range model interestingly has for the last several days been indicating a storm originating either in the W Carib or Bahamas affecting the SE Coast around that time.

Is it possible to post graphics?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

420 hours on Friday 00GMT run. I don't know if this does well with individual storms (timing/location/etc) but it can probably be a good indicator of steering patterns and it's been fairly consistent for weeks in showing something affecting the Southeast.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/e0fea57ca7.png
MDR storm.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 2m2 minutes ago

The GFS vanishing act with GOM hurricane can be quantified with the trend of the last 9 runs. #KnowYourModelBias

[Frank2]

Models might be noticing the strong wave about to exit Africa - first of its strength this season....

[floridasun78]

Super long range model interestingly has for the last several days been indicating a storm originating either in the W Carib or Bahamas affecting the SE Coast around that time.

Is it possible to post graphics?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

420 hours on Friday 00GMT run. I don't know if this does well with individual storms (timing/location/etc) but it can probably be a good indicator of steering patterns and it's been fairly consistent for weeks in showing something affecting the Southeast.

what i see that show hurr close peck part of season that when we likely see hurr coming from far Atlantic crossing from Africa to Bahama area

[JaxGator]

Super long range model interestingly has for the last several days been indicating a storm originating either in the W Carib or Bahamas affecting the SE Coast around that time.

Is it possible to post graphics?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

420 hours on Friday 00GMT run. I don't know if this does well with individual storms (timing/location/etc) but it can probably be a good indicator of steering patterns and it's been fairly consistent for weeks in showing something affecting the Southeast.

Though I take this with a grain of salt, I thought it would be interesting to add that the Farmer's Almanac predicts a Florida hurricane threat early to mid-July. I thought that was ironic given the MJO and favorable Kelvin Wave arriving at the same time and those models (CFS mainly) showing a possible MDR storm at that time. Of course it could come from the West Crib too. Just a thought IF it pans out.

[Hammy]

Is it possible to post graphics?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

420 hours on Friday 00GMT run. I don't know if this does well with individual storms (timing/location/etc) but it can probably be a good indicator of steering patterns and it's been fairly consistent for weeks in showing something affecting the Southeast.

Though I take this with a grain of salt, I thought it would be interesting to add that the Farmer's Almanac predicts a Florida hurricane threat early to mid-July. I thought that was ironic given the MJO and favorable Kelvin Wave arriving at the same time and those models (CFS mainly) showing a possible MDR storm at that time. Of course it could come from the West Crib too. Just a thought IF it pans out.

If I recall correctly, and quite interesting if so, they also predicted a "hurricane threat" months out around the time Erika was headed in Florida's direction--the only thing that stopped it was the massive wall of shear that seems nonexistent this year.

[stormwise]

I maybe mistaken but was Erika the storm that crashed in the islands and decoupled.

[RL3AO]

Shear...Hispaniola. Same thing.

[JaxGator]

Humm. That is interesting. The wall of shear is gone. It's been low across the Atlantic and MDR lately too. Erika's forward speed didn't help her either I believe but mainly shear (which most likely won't be much of a problem this year).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are very very quiet. Seems like good conditions predicted in the future but nothing spins up. The models have been too aggressive so far this season so it may be a sign that things will be quiet for awhile. Let us hope they are right. Also, I do not trust the CFS when it comes to storm prediction it is a model that is supposed to show environment into the very late future. Correct? Either way my prediction of an early July hurricane seems dumb now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't worry, the gfs will come back to its senses In a couple of days and provide plenty of entertainment. Miami and new Orleans will probably be in its cross hairs for a few days in the 300+ hr

[JaxGator]

I've heard that the CFS is only used for that purpose (sensing weather patterns). I know that GFS and Euro are the most trustworthy. I'm not in any model camp (yet) but I just wait and see what happens and go from there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I've heard that the CFS is only used for that purpose (sensing weather patterns). I know that GFS and Euro are the most trustworthy. I'm not in any model camp (yet) but I just wait and see what happens and go from there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Letting nature take its course. Indeed a wise decision. Models are not always right even inside of 3 days but within 5 days they are usually pretty good. Anything outside of 5 days is hit or miss.