2016 EPAC Season

[AJC3]

Tony,lower than that,922 mbs. Is the lowest on this run.

I suspect Levi's web site probably has native output from the 13KM GFS, which would explain the lower MCP.
I believe our GRIB files are resampled to 20KM due to bandwidth constraints.

[cycloneye]

Tony,lower than that,922 mbs. Is the lowest on this run.

I suspect Levi's web site probably has native output from the 13KM GFS, which would explain the lower MCP.
I believe our GRIB files are resampled to 20KM due to bandwidth constraints.

In any case on whatever resolution,we may be seeing a beautiful powerful hurricane to track in open waters.

[cycloneye]

The MJO / Kelvin Wave will help to do this and other developments behind.

[Ntxw]

Yeah CCKW passage will be beneficial. I like the odds for an open water, satellite eye candy.

[cycloneye]

CPC has it in red and has longer range possible developments.

[Yellow Evan]

Longer range storms:





3 more behind the Cat 5 total

[Yellow Evan]

0z EPS seems to like the first system the 0z ECMWF shows more and most members barely develops the system the GFS is showing, at least for another 8 days.

Is very bullish in the long range.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50% in 5 days

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave has moved into the eastern North
Pacific basin and is producing disorganized shower activity. A
broad area of low pressure is expected to form in association
with this wave south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of the disturbance, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't have raised it to 50% until the ECMWF has a better grip on the 2 systems (the first one the ECMWF has, and the GFS one) since as of now if the ECMWF is correct, the 0/50 one won't develop for a while.

[cycloneye]

The NHC folks will have to think hard which model to follow between the fast developer and very strong GFS and the slower and weaker ECMWF.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF develops the first system further left and the GFS system very slowly. With that said, I have a little less trust in the ECMWF than usual since it seems very erratic.

[cycloneye]

GEFS ensembles.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,are you surprised NHC didn't mentioned the more western system?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,are you surprised NHC didn't mentioned the more western system?

No, I've seen plenty of instances on models during the start of MJO pulses where the models falsely detect a weaker system forming next to a more robust system (this happened in 2013 a couple times for instance), so it's best to wait for more consistency among multiple models.

[Kingarabian]

Yellow Evan,are you surprised NHC didn't mentioned the more western system?

I'ts tough on NHC's part.The Euro has been strangely very erratic at the moment and its EPS members are all over the place.

The GFS has been trying to develop this wave for a while now - first in the GOM and now in the Pacific. And I've never seen its ensemble members be super tightly clustered in accordance with the operational model in the medium - long range.

That being said, as the timeframe comes closer hopefully things will become clearer. Logically, Knowing the GFS and its trends this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it caves in to the Euro. But my gut is saying it won't happen because it's ensembles are in excellent agreement with the operational model, and the European has been the exact opposite.

That being said, both models show TC formation one or other and I'm excited to see the season's first storm.

[Yellow Evan]

12z EPS members have shifted east seem a lot more focused on the GFS system. Maybe its caving to the GFS?

[Yellow Evan]

18 GFs through day six

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/226d3f21f1.gif
Strong signal.

I wouldn't bet not even a penny on the NCEP model being correct with the MJO.
The Euro usually does a better job forecasting the MJO.

I would.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFs through day 8.

[cycloneye]

So far is only one system.