cycloneye wrote:Yellow Evan,are you surprised NHC didn't mentioned the more western system?
I'ts tough on NHC's part.The Euro has been strangely very erratic at the moment and its EPS members are all over the place.
The GFS has been trying to develop this wave for a while now - first in the GOM and now in the Pacific. And I've never seen its ensemble members be super tightly clustered in accordance with the operational model in the medium - long range.
That being said, as the timeframe comes closer hopefully things will become clearer. Logically, Knowing the GFS and its trends this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it caves in to the Euro. But my gut is saying it won't happen because it's ensembles are in excellent agreement with the operational model, and the European has been the exact opposite.
That being said, both models show TC formation one or other and I'm excited to see the season's first storm.