2016 EPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#361 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 5:46 pm

Image

Weakening as 2 systems form to its south.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#362 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:02 pm

Image

Image

3 long-range storms in 18z GFS
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145364
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#363 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:22 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuntepec later this week in association with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#364 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:30 pm

I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145364
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#365 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:03 pm

RL3AO wrote:I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.


They say "Gradual Development" so you may be right.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#366 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:06 pm

RL3AO wrote:I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.


The Tropical Wave has emerged into the eastern pacific so it should become clear very soon.

If we see multiple areas of low pressure/voritces spin up becoming evident then the Euro's solution will have more basis. If there's a single area consolidating (like the NHC believes will happen) then the GFS is right.

The MT currently looks really active so I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple vortices spin up and compete for development.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

stormwise

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#367 Postby stormwise » Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:02 pm

Hoping to see a nice gnarly cat4/5 in this basin, Kinda over following sub 64kts junk storms. :ggreen:
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#368 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:11 pm

As long as it's after the 3rd.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#369 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:12 pm

18z GFS has it down to 934MB. Wow :eek:

But the ECMWF doesn't do much with this.

CMC is on board this time.

Tough call but I would go with 50% chance of development. Could we see a big bust from GFS this time? Last time ECMWF busted.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#370 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:18z GFS has it down to 934MB. Wow :eek:

But the ECMWF doesn't do much with this.

CMC is on board this time.

Tough call but I would go with 50% also


ECMWF develops this into a TS just not till day 8, so I think 50% in five days it too bullish, but if you mean development chances overall, I'd place the odds at 90%.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#371 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:11 pm

And it's that time of day again...

Image

0z GFS through 114 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#372 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:22 pm

Image

0z GFS through day 6.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#373 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:32 pm

Image

0z GFS through 186 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#374 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:38 pm

GFS down to 912MB through 192 hrs.

Nothing has changed this run. Let's see if the Euro is any different.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#375 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:42 pm

Image

0z GFS peaks this at 912 it seems

Image

Weakening now
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#376 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:04 am

Later run magic.

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#377 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:15 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuntepec later this week in association with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#378 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:12 am

Looks like the Euro has the first system weaker this run.

Euro has four competing vorticies through 96 hrs.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

stormwise

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#379 Postby stormwise » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:27 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#380 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:17 am

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the Euro has the first system weaker this run.

Euro has four competing vorticies through 96 hrs.


More like through 168 hrs.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy and 36 guests