2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Weakening as 2 systems form to its south.

[Yellow Evan]

3 long-range storms in 18z GFS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuntepec later this week in association with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[RL3AO]

I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.

[cycloneye]

I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.

They say "Gradual Development" so you may be right.

[Kingarabian]

I don't know what to think about this system. It's really difficult to ignore that signal from the GFS/GEFS. I'd be surprised if we don't get Agatha, although I could see it being in the day 5 to 7 range.

The Tropical Wave has emerged into the eastern pacific so it should become clear very soon.

If we see multiple areas of low pressure/voritces spin up becoming evident then the Euro's solution will have more basis. If there's a single area consolidating (like the NHC believes will happen) then the GFS is right.

The MT currently looks really active so I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple vortices spin up and compete for development.

[stormwise]

Hoping to see a nice gnarly cat4/5 in this basin, Kinda over following sub 64kts junk storms.

[WeatherGuesser]

As long as it's after the 3rd.

[gatorcane]

18z GFS has it down to 934MB. Wow

But the ECMWF doesn't do much with this.

CMC is on board this time.

Tough call but I would go with 50% chance of development. Could we see a big bust from GFS this time? Last time ECMWF busted.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has it down to 934MB. Wow

But the ECMWF doesn't do much with this.

CMC is on board this time.

Tough call but I would go with 50% also

ECMWF develops this into a TS just not till day 8, so I think 50% in five days it too bullish, but if you mean development chances overall, I'd place the odds at 90%.

[Yellow Evan]

And it's that time of day again...



0z GFS through 114 hours

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through day 6.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through 186 hours

[Kingarabian]

GFS down to 912MB through 192 hrs.

Nothing has changed this run. Let's see if the Euro is any different.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS peaks this at 912 it seems



Weakening now

[Yellow Evan]

Later run magic.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290500
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuntepec later this week in association with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the Euro has the first system weaker this run.

Euro has four competing vorticies through 96 hrs.

[stormwise]

[NDG]

Looks like the Euro has the first system weaker this run.

Euro has four competing vorticies through 96 hrs.

More like through 168 hrs.