2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

0%-60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec later this week in association with a westward-moving
tropical wave that is currently located south of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of the disturbance, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend while the system moves generally westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF basically has the first storm absorbing the second one. It's lost.

[cycloneye]

NHC goes up to 60% IMO going ahead with GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[tolakram]

Wasn't the GFS consistently better in the EPAC last year?

[RL3AO]

Big reminder that both models had significant upgrades and we haven't seen how well they handle genesis in the epac.

[Yellow Evan]

Wasn't the GFS consistently better in the EPAC last year?

Nah, the ECMWF was (better with genesis, handled Dolores, Hilda, Guilermo, kilo, Loke, Ignacio, and Nora better just to name a few), with the exception of Patricia where it unerdid it's intensity big time.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues with the cat4/5 scenario.924 mbs at 174 hours.

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure was 919 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Here is what awaits the Hurricane proyected to move thru.

[gatorcane]

Quite a battle of the model heavyweights - the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS has a CAT 4/5 while the ECMWF shows the low getting absorbed into another low and becoming only a tropical storm in the long-range. One of these models is going to bust big-time.

Looking at what the NHC is tracking, there just isn't much convection there at all. Also there is a low further west around 95W longitude that is quite defined in the SAT loops that this system could end up competing with. So I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS is far too bullish and we see something closer to the ECMWF here but let's see.

[Ntxw]

Very robust CCKW will be overhead this weekend.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS long-range

[cycloneye]

Now let's see what the 12z run of ECMWF has.Hopefully a little more clarity from the various lows it had in past runs.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of disturbed weather has developed in association
with a tropical wave several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. A low pressure system is expected to form later this
week, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
a tropical depression to develop over the weekend while the system
moves generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF through day 6.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF looks to deepen starting day 7, stronger this run.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is at 12z run with the same GFS low but weaker.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 192 hours, down to 993MB:

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro has a 985mb hurricane @ 216hrs.

Looks like there is another system developing behind it!

Looks like the Euro is caving towards the GFS after all.