2016 EPAC Season

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro has is down to 966mb @ 240hrs.!

Of course this is the lower-resolution Euro so it is likely to be much stronger.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF lowest pressure is 966 mbs at 240 hours.Now it joins GFS on the monster system 0/60 and also has long range developments like GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS may be right after all after seeing the latest Euro run.

By the way the GFS has the Eastern Pacififc Tropical Cyclone pumphouse in full effect on it's 12z run!

[cycloneye]

ECMWF lowest pressure is 966 mbs at 240 hours.Now it joins GFS on the monster system 0/60 and also has long range developments like GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

You can clearly see why the Eastern Pacific Basin is lighting up suddenly thanks to strong ridging forecasted to remain over the GoM unlike what the GFS was protraying about a week ago with more throughiness bringing these African TW's towards the GoM instead of the Eastern Pacific.

Curious to see if the pattern may flip with the upcoming -NAO allowing the Atlantic to reawaken.

12z GFS 500mb Heights (Today)


12z Euro 500mb Heights (Today)


12z GFS 500mb Heights (Last Wednesday)

[Yellow Evan]

On full res, 12z ECMWF down to 964 mbar. Just like that we have a consensus.

Perhaps more amazing, the ECMWF has a total of 4 storms.

[RL3AO]

Are we sure thats not the Canadian?

[Yellow Evan]

Speaking of which...



12z CMC seems be showing something similar to the 0z ECMWF. But it's the CMC.

[Kingarabian]

I'm intrigued by that first storm the Euro has. Looks like it maintains vorticity all the way into the CPAC. I wonder if it'll get a mention from the NHC soon.

But anywqys I think the % in 5 days for development is well around 80%. Good on the NHC so far.

[Kingarabian]

GFS may be right after all after seeing the latest Euro run.

By the way the GFS has the Eastern Pacififc Tropical Cyclone pumphouse in full effect on it's 12z run!

It looks like July may bring EPAC numbers back to average.

[Ntxw]

its about time we get those long ACE rakers to start

[Kingarabian]

Well I'm worried that this is a repeat of 2010.

From June 14-22, four storms formed with two of them becoming major hurricanes. But that was it and the season was shut down.

[stormwise]

looks like one strong system on this model drags the MT north and vacuums up the other vorts. Latter on in the run other vorts spin up to the south within another cell.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't care what happens after the 3rd as long as they don't cause harm. Just want that record since we missed in the ATL last year by a few hours.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

Well I'm worried that this is a repeat of 2010.

From June 14-22, four storms formed with two of them becoming major hurricanes. But that was it and the season was shut down.

2010 was -PDO though.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS through 150 hours

[cycloneye]

What about 922 mbs at 162 hours?

[stormwise]

I don't care what happens after the 3rd as long as they don't cause harm. Just want that record since we missed in the ATL last year by a few hours.

Nobody wants to see harm or destruction in any basin, atm no model i see is showing a landfalling cane. With the GFS model atm showing a potential cat5 its intriguing to follow.

[cycloneye]

920 mbs at 186 hours.

[cycloneye]

920 mbs at 186 hours.

Is the lowest pressure on the 18z run.