2016 EPAC Season

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TheStormExpert

Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#401 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:57 pm

12z Euro has is down to 966mb @ 240hrs.!

Of course this is the lower-resolution Euro so it is likely to be much stronger.

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#402 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:02 pm

ECMWF lowest pressure is 966 mbs at 240 hours.Now it joins GFS on the monster system 0/60 and also has long range developments like GFS.

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#403 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:02 pm

GFS may be right after all after seeing the latest Euro run.

By the way the GFS has the Eastern Pacififc Tropical Cyclone pumphouse in full effect on it's 12z run!

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#404 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:03 pm

ECMWF lowest pressure is 966 mbs at 240 hours.Now it joins GFS on the monster system 0/60 and also has long range developments like GFS.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#405 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:11 pm

You can clearly see why the Eastern Pacific Basin is lighting up suddenly thanks to strong ridging forecasted to remain over the GoM unlike what the GFS was protraying about a week ago with more throughiness bringing these African TW's towards the GoM instead of the Eastern Pacific.

Curious to see if the pattern may flip with the upcoming -NAO allowing the Atlantic to reawaken.

12z GFS 500mb Heights (Today) :darrow:
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12z Euro 500mb Heights (Today) :darrow:
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12z GFS 500mb Heights (Last Wednesday) :darrow:
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season: 12z GFS and ECMWF agree on developing system 0%/60%

#406 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:17 pm

On full res, 12z ECMWF down to 964 mbar. Just like that we have a consensus.

Perhaps more amazing, the ECMWF has a total of 4 storms.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season: 12z GFS and ECMWF agree on developing system 0%/60%

#407 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:28 pm

Are we sure thats not the Canadian? :lol:
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season: 12z GFS and ECMWF agree on developing system 0%/60%

#408 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:33 pm

Speaking of which...

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12z CMC seems be showing something similar to the 0z ECMWF. But it's the CMC.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#409 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:55 pm

I'm intrigued by that first storm the Euro has. Looks like it maintains vorticity all the way into the CPAC. I wonder if it'll get a mention from the NHC soon.

But anywqys I think the % in 5 days for development is well around 80%. Good on the NHC so far.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#410 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:01 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:GFS may be right after all after seeing the latest Euro run.

By the way the GFS has the Eastern Pacififc Tropical Cyclone pumphouse in full effect on it's 12z run!



It looks like July may bring EPAC numbers back to average.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#411 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:01 pm

:uarrow: its about time we get those long ACE rakers to start
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#412 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:12 pm

:uarrow:

Well I'm worried that this is a repeat of 2010.

From June 14-22, four storms formed with two of them becoming major hurricanes. But that was it and the season was shut down.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#413 Postby stormwise » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:01 pm

Image
looks like one strong system on this model drags the MT north and vacuums up the other vorts. Latter on in the run other vorts spin up to the south within another cell.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#414 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:02 pm

I don't care what happens after the 3rd as long as they don't cause harm. Just want that record since we missed in the ATL last year by a few hours.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#415 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

Well I'm worried that this is a repeat of 2010.

From June 14-22, four storms formed with two of them becoming major hurricanes. But that was it and the season was shut down.


2010 was -PDO though.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#416 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:21 pm

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18z GFS through 150 hours
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#417 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:27 pm

What about 922 mbs at 162 hours?

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#418 Postby stormwise » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:32 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:I don't care what happens after the 3rd as long as they don't cause harm. Just want that record since we missed in the ATL last year by a few hours.


Nobody wants to see harm or destruction in any basin, atm no model i see is showing a landfalling cane. With the GFS model atm showing a potential cat5 its intriguing to follow.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season:18z GFS running

#419 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:33 pm

920 mbs at 186 hours.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season:18z GFS running

#420 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:920 mbs at 186 hours.


Is the lowest pressure on the 18z run.

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