EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Beautiful storm and a reminder of what used to form in the Atlantic back in the day
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Code: Select all
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2016 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 14:10:02 N Lon : 119:50:13 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 960.9mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C
Scene Type : EYE
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Darvince wrote:Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.
lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Eye still cloudy though circular on microwave. I'd guess this is 95 or 100 knots right now.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Code: Select all
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2016 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 14:23:27 N Lon : 119:56:02 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 956.5mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : -4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C
Scene Type : EYE
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- Kingarabian
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- galaxy401
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Darvince wrote:Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.
lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.
So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
galaxy401 wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Darvince wrote:Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.
lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.
So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.
Yes, but Joaquin wasn't hardly the most impressive Cat 4 I've tracked. The eye of Blas is certainly warmer than Joaquin.
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- Yellow Evan
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
galaxy401 wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Darvince wrote:Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.
lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.
So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.
Looks so much better lol not a cat 5 yet or close but probably a cat 3 nearing 4 now. Looks very nice.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
It's definitely been rapidly intensifying today. A nice looking hurricane to track.
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Code: Select all
EP, 03, 201607051800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1440N, 12020W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, MT, VIM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=5.0 FTBO DT
Likely 115 at the next advisory
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
NHC is likely killing this off a bit too quick.
EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold
EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:NHC is likely killing this off a bit too quick.
EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold
The SHIPS output seems to be showing SSTs are too cold when compared to Reynolds/CDAS.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Bulletin Archive
TXPZ21 KNES 051820
TCSENP
A. 03E (BLAS)
B. 05/1800Z
C. 14.4N
D. 120.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE MET IS
5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
Given that the ADT is a bit lower, maybe 110 kt?
TXPZ21 KNES 051820
TCSENP
A. 03E (BLAS)
B. 05/1800Z
C. 14.4N
D. 120.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE MET IS
5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
Given that the ADT is a bit lower, maybe 110 kt?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
CrazyC83 wrote:Bulletin Archive
TXPZ21 KNES 051820
TCSENP
A. 03E (BLAS)
B. 05/1800Z
C. 14.4N
D. 120.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE MET IS
5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
Given that the ADT is a bit lower, maybe 110 kt?
Unless TAFB is 5.5 which makes no sense and given ADT is limited due to the annoying 1.7/6 hours post-MW constraints, I see no reason not to go 115.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
Code: Select all
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:14:09 N Lon : 120:21:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 956.6mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +1.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C
Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane
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