EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[tarheelprogrammer]

Beautiful storm and a reminder of what used to form in the Atlantic back in the day

[Darvince]

Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.

[Yellow Evan]

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   160000 UTC
      Lat :   14:10:02 N     Lon :  119:50:13 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.6 / 960.9mb/104.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.6     5.8     6.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

 Center Temp :  +0.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

 Scene Type : EYE 

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.

lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye still cloudy though circular on microwave. I'd guess this is 95 or 100 knots right now.

[Yellow Evan]

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   170000 UTC
      Lat :   14:23:27 N     Lon :  119:56:02 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 956.5mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.8     5.8     6.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

 Center Temp :  -4.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

 Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Need that eye to be just a little more round.

[galaxy401]

Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.

lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.

So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.

[Yellow Evan]

Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.

lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.

So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.

Yes, but Joaquin wasn't hardly the most impressive Cat 4 I've tracked. The eye of Blas is certainly warmer than Joaquin.

[Yellow Evan]

B fully embedded in the OW eye now. Likely T5.5 or T6.0.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ah, back in the old days of October 2015.

lol this storm already looks so much better than Joaquin and better than any storm I can remember in the Atlantic in awhile.

So Blas is already a category 5 by that logic? Joaquin was nearly a 5 you know.

Looks so much better lol not a cat 5 yet or close but probably a cat 3 nearing 4 now. Looks very nice.

[JaxGator]

It's definitely been rapidly intensifying today. A nice looking hurricane to track.

[Yellow Evan]

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EP, 03, 201607051800,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1440N, 12020W,      , 1, 115, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  MT,  VIM, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE  MET=5.5 PT=5.0 FTBO DT

Likely 115 at the next advisory

[Alyono]

NHC is likely killing this off a bit too quick.

EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold

[Yellow Evan]

NHC is likely killing this off a bit too quick.

EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold

The SHIPS output seems to be showing SSTs are too cold when compared to Reynolds/CDAS.

[CrazyC83]

Bulletin Archive

TXPZ21 KNES 051820
TCSENP

A. 03E (BLAS)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 14.4N

D. 120.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE MET IS
5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

Given that the ADT is a bit lower, maybe 110 kt?

[CrazyC83]

EP, 03, 2016070518, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1203W, 105, 958, HU,

[Yellow Evan]

Bulletin Archive

TXPZ21 KNES 051820
TCSENP

A. 03E (BLAS)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 14.4N

D. 120.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...B RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.0 WHILE MET IS
5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

Given that the ADT is a bit lower, maybe 110 kt?

Unless TAFB is 5.5 which makes no sense and given ADT is limited due to the annoying 1.7/6 hours post-MW constraints, I see no reason not to go 115.

[Yellow Evan]

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   183000 UTC
      Lat :   14:14:09 N     Lon :  120:21:45 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 956.6mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.8     5.9     6.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 Center Temp :  +1.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

 Scene Type : EYE 

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/750414398829789184