2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

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Hammy
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#641 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:01 pm

http://i.imgur.com/aW6GnVH.png
http://i.imgur.com/TtMeORn.png
http://i.imgur.com/fgE0l37.png

Above normal rain with below normal pressure/rainfall showing up for the last third of the month--could this be an indicator that something might form around that time?
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#642 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:26 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
Hammy wrote:
stormwise wrote:


Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.


Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!! :wink:



Better chance that it turns out to be another 10 day out phantom model storm that never does a thing, much like it was so persistent doing so two weeks ago. But yeah the trough will be there waiting for it in a couple weeks though :wink:
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#643 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:58 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Better chance that it turns out to be another 10 day out phantom model storm that never does a thing, much like it was so persistent doing so two weeks ago. But yeah the trough will be there waiting for it in a couple weeks though :wink:


The ECMWF briefly had 1 phantom storm off the east coast that didn't pan out. With that said, I'm not seeing anything on the horizon in the long range GFS and EPS runs, but it makes sense we'll get something before too long, with a CCKW/MJO entering from the EPAC.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#644 Postby stormwise » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:24 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:Latest Euro is showing a closed low coming off of Africa in about nine days (still far out) but I believe this is the first time it's shown a wave this strong in the runs, and that would line up with the development probabilities from yesterday timeframe-wise.


Will it hit the "permanent trough" or "Texas Death ridge"?? Stay tuned!!


Nope it will hit the Caribbean shear death trap. :lol:[/quote]


OK don't say you was not warned. :)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#645 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:29 am

I noticed the 500MB high is nudging slightly north over time, and continues to do so in the model runs--the CFS five day average has the 591 isobar pushed from Puerto Rico to about 30N with the 588 isobar going from Central America to the northern Caribbean--could this be an indication of the ITCZ moving north and thus an indicator that the Cape Verde season could start by month's end?
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

#646 Postby stormwise » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:57 am

From around 20th the cfsV2 anoms starts rolling td waves off Africa.
https://i.imgsafe.org/b823110d49.png :larrow:


Image
td depressed easterly wave forecast.

Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#647 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:54 pm

Euro has been showing a low pressure coming off the Carolinas in about a week for a few days, and now the last two runs have it moving slowly along the coast and strengthening.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#648 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:00 pm

Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#649 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:13 pm

Siker wrote:Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.


Could be the wave that the CFS is picking up developing near the end of July in the Bahamas.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#650 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:56 pm

:uarrow:
July can still be an interesting month tropic wise. 2008 had major Hurricane Bertha way out in the Atlantic but the steering patterns thankfully favored a re-curve then. If this storm does come into the picture, the Bahamas and the waters off Florida plus the Gulf Stream would be plenty of fuel for it depending on the shear.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#651 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 05, 2016 10:23 pm

Hammy wrote:
Siker wrote:Good agreement among the GFS / Euro / CMC on a large tropical wave emerging off of Africa at a decent latitude (main vorticity around the Cape Verde Islands) in 8 days. Nothing indicating any development of it right now.


Could be the wave that the CFS is picking up developing near the end of July in the Bahamas.


I believe so but as always something 20 to 25 days away is complete fantasy but could be a good indicator of steering currents
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#652 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:24 am

The new updates have for the most part stopped the phantom storms popping up in the long range. This is a good thing but it makes it all a little boring for model watchers :lol: . At least we know if something does show up it will have a better chance of actually happening. 8-)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#653 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:31 pm

Models are indicating the ITCZ starting to thicken up with a few brief almost spin-ups in about 8-12 days, so this could be an indication that things are about to start going by the end of the month.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#654 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Hammy wrote:Models are indicating the ITCZ starting to thicken up with a few brief almost spin-ups in about 8-12 days, so this could be an indication that things are about to start going by the end of the month.


Id say so with the MJO coming around that time on most models except the GFS but even the GFS is showing lows on the ITCZ out around 264hrs on but we'll have to see if we continue to see these lows on future runs or even if these low developments come closer in time before we get excited but thats just climatology showing up in the models as things start to pick up by late July early August on average

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#655 Postby stormwise » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:06 am

Image
EC-00z 850 CRV @138hrs SE USA coast, occluded frontal low moves off the continent and appears to obtain tropical characteristics
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#656 Postby ninel conde » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:24 am

Image

Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#657 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:55 am

ninel conde wrote:
Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.


Check Tropical Tidbits pressure anomalies. High moved west and north--your trough over SE Canada is nonexistent by the end of the run, and pressures are lowering in the eastern Atlantic as well.

http://i.imgur.com/xGPfejn.png
http://i.imgur.com/YSCGGI5.png

Major difference 240 hours out from now.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#658 Postby stormwise » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:02 am

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#659 Postby ninel conde » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:10 am

Hammy wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
Unlike what some are saying the azores high has NOT moved north but has headed south with super high pressure over the deep tropics.


Check Tropical Tidbits pressure anomalies. High moved west and north--your trough over SE Canada is nonexistent by the end of the run, and pressures are lowering in the eastern Atlantic as well.

http://i.imgur.com/xGPfejn.png
http://i.imgur.com/YSCGGI5.png

Major difference 240 hours out from now.


Shows some improvement but it still shows the same as my map. Pressures well above normal in the deep tropics. The se canada low needs to be gone for good so we need to see if that high is permanent.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 15)

#660 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:03 am

Please keep in mind that if you are posting models past day 15 use the other thread, not this one please. Thanks.

Long range thread -> viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117740
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