EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Celia looks flat out terrible right now.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looks like a failed WPac eyewall replacement mess with warmer tops. Pretty blech.

The last couple of microwave passes have at least helped to lend some credence to the idea that some sort eyewall replacement did in fact occur. Looks to me like a 60-70 nm eyewall developed from the outer banding, closed off, and and (mostly) choked off this inner core, although some remains of an inner eyewall can still be seen.

[NDG]

I don't think is eyewall replacement at all, might be just problems with stable air around the system.

[Alyono]

MU continues to insist this will move north of the islands

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF is north of Hawaii also:

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 112039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 126.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Up to cat 2.

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

During the past 6 h, the inner-core region of Celia has undergone
multiple evolutions from a banding eye into a large eye that was
more representative of an annular hurricane to what has now become
a 20-nmi cloud-filled eye. Subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI)
estimates remain T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and CIRA and CIMSS
AMSU objective intensity estimates were 87 kt and 86 kt at 1435Z,
respectively. Since those subjective and objective estimates were
obtained, the inner-core convection has increased markedly,
especially during the past few hours, with tightly coiled convective
bands now concentrated within mainly 70 nmi of the center. Based on
the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt. As anticipated, Celia has
slowed its forward motion as it approaches a developing weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the west-northwest later
tonight is expected as Celia begins to move into the developing
weakness in the ridge. The shortwave trough that is inducing this
weakness is forecast to weaken in 48-72 h and lift out to the north
or northeast. This will allow the ridge to re-strengthen and
gradually nudge Celia back on a more westward track in the 72-120 h
period. The latest NHC track guidance continues to be in excellent
agreement with very little spread in the models, and the new
forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope.

The center of Celia is currently passing over 25.5 deg C SSTs based
on reports from drifting buoy 43540, which is about 2 deg C cooler
than the SHIPS intensity model is indicating. Having said that, the
cooler water doesn't appear to have negatively affected Celia today,
perhaps due to the proximity to warmer water and deeper instability
to the south. However, by 12 h and beyond, Celia will be moving over
a large field of sub-26 deg C SSTs and into an extensive region of
stable stratocumulus clouds, and the decreasing instability is
expected to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. However, with the vertical shear forecast to remain
low, Celia is expected to still be a tropical cyclone when it
crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin in
84-96 h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.2N 126.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneRyan]

Definitely will not come close to the iconic 2010 storm.

[Alyono]

this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement

[Yellow Evan]

this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement

Levi's site never really showed this lower than 25-26C, but those are probably too high.

[Alyono]

this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement

Levi's site never really showed this lower than 25-26C, but those are probably too high.

the microwave may have underdid the amount of SST cooling a bit. SHIPS had 27.5 SST now for the system, and yet it is 25.5C. Given given the convective strtcure of this, this appears to be moving over significantly warmer waters than it had been over

[Alyono]

was looking more in depth at the MU earlier today. Forecasts like it has for Celia is why it earns the MU moniker

It is once again, trying to turn a TC through a 500mb ridge. As the ridge strengthens in the run north of Hawaii, Celia turns to the NW.

I'm starting to give this model about the same weight as I give the NAVGEM, which is close to zero. There seem to be a few dynamical flaws that are simply not corrected

[Kingarabian]

18z weaker.

[Alyono]

18z weaker.

because it is well north of the previous in the short term

[Kingarabian]

18z weaker.

because it is well north of the previous in the short term

Well it was forecasting for Blas to go north than it really did. It showed the shortwave trough interacting far too much with the ridge.

[stormwise]

Warm mix .

Alyono wrote: I'm starting to give this model about the same weight as I give the NAVGEM, which is close to zero. There seem to be a few dynamical flaws that are simply not corrected

Few weeks ago R Maue posted a similar statement based on performance, He quoted the model is now 4th on list behind the EC and below the nav.

[gatorcane]

Saved RGB loop, structure looks good

[stormwise]

likely to see rapid weakening over the next 24hrs due to MSLP +dry/air

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

Celia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the
central features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary
imagery. A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that
the eye was open over the northeast quadrant. The current intensity
estimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Since
Celia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling
and into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence
soon. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest
model consensus, IVCN.

The cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is
now about 285/9 kt. Celia is near the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A
mid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward,
allowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical
cyclone. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia
to turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast
period. The track models have mostly shifted northward from
their previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged
a little to the north of the previous one. This is south of the
latest dynamical model consensus, however.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  12 JUL 2016    Time :   020000 UTC
      Lat :   15:34:55 N     Lon :  126:48:43 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.2 / 965.1mb/ 94.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.2     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

 Center Temp :  -6.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

 Scene Type : EYE