EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16050
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#181 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:34 am

Celia looks flat out terrible right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#182 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:55 am

Yeah, looks like a failed WPac eyewall replacement mess with warmer tops. Pretty blech.

The last couple of microwave passes have at least helped to lend some credence to the idea that some sort eyewall replacement did in fact occur. Looks to me like a 60-70 nm eyewall developed from the outer banding, closed off, and and (mostly) choked off this inner core, although some remains of an inner eyewall can still be seen.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15420
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#183 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:05 am

I don't think is eyewall replacement at all, might be just problems with stable air around the system.

Image
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#184 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:24 am

MU continues to insist this will move north of the islands
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23651
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#185 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:51 pm

12Z ECMWF is north of Hawaii also:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16050
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#186 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:42 pm

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 112039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
2100 UTC MON JUL 11 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 126.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#187 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:42 pm

Up to cat 2.

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

During the past 6 h, the inner-core region of Celia has undergone
multiple evolutions from a banding eye into a large eye that was
more representative of an annular hurricane to what has now become
a 20-nmi cloud-filled eye. Subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI)
estimates remain T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and CIRA and CIMSS
AMSU objective intensity estimates were 87 kt and 86 kt at 1435Z,
respectively. Since those subjective and objective estimates were
obtained, the inner-core convection has increased markedly,
especially during the past few hours, with tightly coiled convective
bands now concentrated within mainly 70 nmi of the center. Based on
the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt. As anticipated, Celia has
slowed its forward motion as it approaches a developing weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the west-northwest later
tonight is expected as Celia begins to move into the developing
weakness in the ridge. The shortwave trough that is inducing this
weakness is forecast to weaken in 48-72 h and lift out to the north
or northeast. This will allow the ridge to re-strengthen and
gradually nudge Celia back on a more westward track in the 72-120 h
period. The latest NHC track guidance continues to be in excellent
agreement with very little spread in the models, and the new
forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope.

The center of Celia is currently passing over 25.5 deg C SSTs based
on reports from drifting buoy 43540, which is about 2 deg C cooler
than the SHIPS intensity model is indicating. Having said that, the
cooler water doesn't appear to have negatively affected Celia today,
perhaps due to the proximity to warmer water and deeper instability
to the south. However, by 12 h and beyond, Celia will be moving over
a large field of sub-26 deg C SSTs and into an extensive region of
stable stratocumulus clouds, and the decreasing instability is
expected to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. However, with the vertical shear forecast to remain
low, Celia is expected to still be a tropical cyclone when it
crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin in
84-96 h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.2N 126.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 794
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#188 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:57 pm

Definitely will not come close to the iconic 2010 storm.
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#189 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:26 pm

this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16050
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#190 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:31 pm

Alyono wrote:this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement


Levi's site never really showed this lower than 25-26C, but those are probably too high.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#191 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:03 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:this may be off of Blas' cold wake.

I saw NHCs discussion about Celia now over 25.5C waters. I suspect it was over waters of 23-24C during the past couple of days. The 25C waters are a major improvement


Levi's site never really showed this lower than 25-26C, but those are probably too high.


the microwave may have underdid the amount of SST cooling a bit. SHIPS had 27.5 SST now for the system, and yet it is 25.5C. Given given the convective strtcure of this, this appears to be moving over significantly warmer waters than it had been over
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#192 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:13 pm

was looking more in depth at the MU earlier today. Forecasts like it has for Celia is why it earns the MU moniker

It is once again, trying to turn a TC through a 500mb ridge. As the ridge strengthens in the run north of Hawaii, Celia turns to the NW.

I'm starting to give this model about the same weight as I give the NAVGEM, which is close to zero. There seem to be a few dynamical flaws that are simply not corrected
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15757
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#193 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:15 pm

18z weaker.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#194 Postby Alyono » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:38 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z weaker.


because it is well north of the previous in the short term
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15757
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#195 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:43 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z weaker.


because it is well north of the previous in the short term


Well it was forecasting for Blas to go north than it really did. It showed the shortwave trough interacting far too much with the ridge.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

stormwise
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#196 Postby stormwise » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:44 pm

Image
Warm mix .


Alyono wrote: I'm starting to give this model about the same weight as I give the NAVGEM, which is close to zero. There seem to be a few dynamical flaws that are simply not corrected


Few weeks ago R Maue posted a similar statement based on performance, He quoted the model is now 4th on list behind the EC and below the nav.
Last edited by stormwise on Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23651
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#197 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:28 pm

Saved RGB loop, structure looks good

Image
0 likes   

stormwise
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#198 Postby stormwise » Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:32 pm

Image

likely to see rapid weakening over the next 24hrs due to MSLP +dry/air
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 142552
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#199 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2016 9:44 pm

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

Celia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the
central features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary
imagery. A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that
the eye was open over the northeast quadrant. The current intensity
estimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Since
Celia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling
and into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence
soon. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest
model consensus, IVCN.

The cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is
now about 285/9 kt. Celia is near the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A
mid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward,
allowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical
cyclone. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia
to turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast
period. The track models have mostly shifted northward from
their previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged
a little to the north of the previous one. This is south of the
latest dynamical model consensus, however.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16050
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: CELIA - Hurricane

#200 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:10 pm

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  12 JUL 2016    Time :   020000 UTC
      Lat :   15:34:55 N     Lon :  126:48:43 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.2 / 965.1mb/ 94.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.2     5.3     5.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

 Center Temp :  -6.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

 Scene Type : EYE
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests