Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Hammy wrote:Models showing abnormally high shear returning in a week or so basin-wide. Combined with the waves continuing to come up at almost 20N, and a return of Pacific activity as per the last several runs, I don't see anything forming for another month or so. I'm having doubts about my 1998 analog as well given that I don't recall the ITCZ being nearly this far north over Africa, nor do I remember the shear being high in late July/early August over the western part of the basin.
August is supposed to be one of the busiest months of any given hurricane season and if wind shear is high it is basically game over!
Not trying to just cry season cancel but the models are really starting to make it hard for me to believe a 1998 redux when the East Pacific just won't let up.
I'm still thinking 1998 is the most likely -at the moment- but am a bit less sure--I don't have model runs to compare to, nor do I have actual instability/upper air/moisture/low level flow charts to compare this year to for certainty one way or the other, only memory. The positioning of the ITCZ is certainly the biggest source of my doubt at the moment though, the lows are coming off far too north as even in the best of conditions the waters are too cool. The shear though will certainly shut down the western half of the basin for the next several weeks if it plays out.
Yeah it makes no sense why these waves are coming off so far north in latitude where waters are too cool to support even the slightest tropical development, therefore the waves just fizzle out and die not only due to the cooler waters but the dry air, and sal that's high in that region.
If we don't have waves to track then forget anything developing in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico where conditions could still be hostile with strong wind shear.
Really would like to also hear some feedback from a Pro-Met as to what they see happening from here on out since conditions aren't looking too good out there.