srainhoutx wrote:Mark, I believe we will need months to determine that factual data. With all the recent upgrades to the various Global Guidance, a snapshot in a short time will likely not produce the most accurate results when determining how well the various Global models are doing regarding the 1000/500/700/200/925 and even 850mb levels. Computers have come a long way in getting a better sense of the various schemes since I began monitoring more years ago than I care to mention.
Yep, all are getting better, but just to rub salt in the wound.
WeatherBell keeps running scores for the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAVGEM
5 day skill averaged over the last 30 days.ECMWF .893
GFS .864
NAVGEM .832
ECMWF 6 day skill averaged over the last 30 days .820
ECMWF 10 day skill averaged over the last 30 days .515
For tropical genesis performance, there looks to be a recent article behind a paywall.
Does any promet have access to this article?http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -15-0157.1