
Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Darvince wrote:Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.
I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on
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Andy D
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
chaser1 wrote:Darvince wrote:Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.
I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on
The flat red line is clearly defined as the current temperature. It provides a reference and is certainly not intended to indicate a trend.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Pretty much north of 22/23 has been a GOM dead zone for sometime. Intersting to see if it changes this year.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I pulled up some shear maps from when Grace was struggling in the MDR last year around the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You can see just how much better the shear is across the Atlantic between even in July this year than it was in September of last year:
Sept 12th 2015:
https://s32.postimg.org/gz9ud47id/ciz_GZXY.gif
https://s31.postimg.org/f1bfs1n97/WCllhx0.gif
July 25th, 2016:
https://s31.postimg.org/o5il0kzij/wg8sht.gif
https://s32.postimg.org/ax6hfodl1/wg8shr.gif
Sept 12th 2015:
https://s32.postimg.org/gz9ud47id/ciz_GZXY.gif
https://s31.postimg.org/f1bfs1n97/WCllhx0.gif
July 25th, 2016:
https://s31.postimg.org/o5il0kzij/wg8sht.gif
https://s32.postimg.org/ax6hfodl1/wg8shr.gif
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.
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Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Assuming blue is favorable it didnt mean much as the atlantic is virtually convection free. At least with that map showing things getting worse we cant have any less convection.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ ... 252115.gif
thats today with blue.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
fendie wrote:chaser1 wrote:Darvince wrote:Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.
I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on
The flat red line is clearly defined as the current temperature. It provides a reference and is certainly not intended to indicate a trend.
You may well be correct but I still fail to understand your point. Frankly, I see no need to even have a red line in that particular graph, unless one's point is to draw a comparison to one or more prior analogue years to compare. If that were the intended purpose, than would'nt the point have been driven home a bit better if the speciific dates/years were defined under each of those points? That, or at least contribute some greater clarity by at least adding a footnote pointing out prior years for a reference of comparison. As you said, the purpose of that graph had nothing to do with indicating a trend; It's plainly clear though, that i'm not alone in misunderstanding the intended message.
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Andy D
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
JaxGator wrote:Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.
You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summerize the jest of the new outlook?
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Andy D
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I think its a daily overview and very thorough.
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
chaser1 wrote:JaxGator wrote:Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.
You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summerize the jest of the new outlook?
It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:
current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif
He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):

He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:

He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg
Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
One thing I've noticed in the past several runs of the GFS are two significant troughs pushing off the EC into the Western Atlantic the first week of August. That'd be where I'd look for the next sign of development (as Alyono has alluded to). After that the GFS builds back in a ridge and the Carib becomes quite convective. Of course all of this is very long range, but a pattern to watch for:




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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
USTropics wrote:chaser1 wrote:JaxGator wrote:Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.
You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summarize the jest of the new outlook?
It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:
current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif
He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg
He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png
He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg
Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk
Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
JaxGator wrote:USTropics wrote:chaser1 wrote:
You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summarize the jest of the new outlook?
It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:
current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif
He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg
He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png
He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg
Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk
Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.
No prob; I'm familier with how to attach a link, but have no idea how to properly attach a satellite file or graphic. Anyway, that is an interesting parallel to 2004.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
chaser1 wrote:JaxGator wrote:USTropics wrote:
It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:
current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif
He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg
He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png
He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg
Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).
Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk
Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.
No prob; I'm familier with how to attach a link, but have no idea how to properly attach a satellite file or graphic. Anyway, that is an interesting parallel to 2004.
I just copy and paste an image. Though it would be nice to upload an image where everyone can see it.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
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Re: Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
The current wave near the Cape Verde islands has put a serious dent in the SAL for now at least. Note a couple of vigorous waves over Africa (one about ready to emerge) and another one over Central Africa that could continue to put dents in the SAL:


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