Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Yellow Evan]

That's just the MJO moving from the EPAC to the IO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/757558911159283712

[Darvince]

Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.

[chaser1]

Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.

I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on

[fendie]

Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.

I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on

The flat red line is clearly defined as the current temperature. It provides a reference and is certainly not intended to indicate a trend.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/757619959388176384

[ninel conde]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/757619959388176384

Pretty much north of 22/23 has been a GOM dead zone for sometime. Intersting to see if it changes this year.

[gatorcane]

I pulled up some shear maps from when Grace was struggling in the MDR last year around the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You can see just how much better the shear is across the Atlantic between even in July this year than it was in September of last year:

Sept 12th 2015:
https://s32.postimg.org/gz9ud47id/ciz_GZXY.gif
https://s31.postimg.org/f1bfs1n97/WCllhx0.gif

July 25th, 2016:
https://s31.postimg.org/o5il0kzij/wg8sht.gif
https://s32.postimg.org/ax6hfodl1/wg8shr.gif

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/757684045786583040

[JaxGator]

Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.

[ninel conde]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/757684045786583040

Assuming blue is favorable it didnt mean much as the atlantic is virtually convection free. At least with that map showing things getting worse we cant have any less convection.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ ... 252115.gif

thats today with blue.

[chaser1]

Plotting a flat line across the image when there is clearly a positive trendline is just irresponsible. It fits in perfectly well with the globe warming as a whole, it's just that smaller regions of the world will warm at different rates. And some (Southern Ocean, far north Atlantic) will cool.

I agree with you regarding the above graph showing a flatline where a positive trend here is evident. That is irresponsible regardless what side of the Global warming fence one might sit on

The flat red line is clearly defined as the current temperature. It provides a reference and is certainly not intended to indicate a trend.

You may well be correct but I still fail to understand your point. Frankly, I see no need to even have a red line in that particular graph, unless one's point is to draw a comparison to one or more prior analogue years to compare. If that were the intended purpose, than would'nt the point have been driven home a bit better if the speciific dates/years were defined under each of those points? That, or at least contribute some greater clarity by at least adding a footnote pointing out prior years for a reference of comparison. As you said, the purpose of that graph had nothing to do with indicating a trend; It's plainly clear though, that i'm not alone in misunderstanding the intended message.

[chaser1]

Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.

You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summerize the jest of the new outlook?

[ninel conde]

I think its a daily overview and very thorough.

[USTropics]

Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.

You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summerize the jest of the new outlook?

It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:

current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif

He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):


He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:


He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg

Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk

[USTropics]

One thing I've noticed in the past several runs of the GFS are two significant troughs pushing off the EC into the Western Atlantic the first week of August. That'd be where I'd look for the next sign of development (as Alyono has alluded to). After that the GFS builds back in a ridge and the Carib becomes quite convective. Of course all of this is very long range, but a pattern to watch for:

[JaxGator]

Hurricanetrack posted a new outlook today on youtube if anyone is interested.

You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summarize the jest of the new outlook?

It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:

current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif

He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg

He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png

He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg

Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk

Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.

[chaser1]

You left no link, but googled and found it. After a little bit I have to admit, I began to skip forward several times. I never actually did hear any "outlook" or forecast though. Care to summarize the jest of the new outlook?

It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:

current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif

He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg

He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png

He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg

Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk

Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.

No prob; I'm familier with how to attach a link, but have no idea how to properly attach a satellite file or graphic. Anyway, that is an interesting parallel to 2004.

[JaxGator]

It focused heavily on SSTs and TCHP. Essentially he compared the current SST anomalies to that of 2004:

current SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/JktBaTO.gif
2004 SST anomalies: http://i.imgur.com/BBst0pf.gif

He said this is essentially a pool of gasoline waiting for a match to go off (TCHP in Carib):
http://i.imgur.com/zPJIBra.jpg

He covered the current SSTs along the Eastern Coast of CONUS and how they can suppport a significant storm all the way up to Delaware:
http://i.imgur.com/v8HaCwY.png

He also mentioned the convection over Western Africa above 20N is a sign of diminishing SAL:
http://i.imgur.com/7Kv05NO.jpg

Basically he anticipates a pickup of activity in mid August and he could see a slight increase in forecasted numbers (by a storm or 2).

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwRIjj0m4Nk

Excellent summery USTropics and thank you. Sorry I couldn't provide the link. I still don't know how to post links from youtube on here. That's a interesting parallel from this year and 2004.

No prob; I'm familier with how to attach a link, but have no idea how to properly attach a satellite file or graphic. Anyway, that is an interesting parallel to 2004.

I just copy and paste an image. Though it would be nice to upload an image where everyone can see it.

[gatorcane]

The current wave near the Cape Verde islands has put a serious dent in the SAL for now at least. Note a couple of vigorous waves over Africa (one about ready to emerge) and another one over Central Africa that could continue to put dents in the SAL: