2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Hammy]

0Z GFS showing lower surface pressures in the SW Carib. than recent runs. Also showing another non tropical low quickly turning tropical off the Conus East coast in the 200+ hr. range. Trending slowly towards the light switch about to be turned on.

Euro is indicating something could develop headed towards the Bahamas in about a week's time.

[USTropics]

I haven't seen this mentioned yet on Storm2k but apparently the NHC has been following the wave that the GFS model was initially developing as it exited Africa (they've labeled it 50L).

Source: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal502016.dat

This is most likely experimental but the first time I've seen it.

[ninel conde]

0Z GFS showing lower surface pressures in the SW Carib. than recent runs. Also showing another non tropical low quickly turning tropical off the Conus East coast in the 200+ hr. range. Trending slowly towards the light switch about to be turned on.

Euro is indicating something could develop headed towards the Bahamas in about a week's time.

Dont see anything. pressue rather high in sw atl.

[NDG]

As mentioned by some, 0z Euro shows a strong tropical wave with possible weak development as it approaches the Bahamas.
A shows a strong mid level ridge north of it preventing it from recurving out to sea.

[stormwise]

Not prefer to see a fish storm, those are basically what the EC ens are showing.

[ninel conde]

As mentioned by some, 0z Euro shows a strong tropical wave with possible weak development as it approaches the Bahamas.
A shows a strong mid level ridge north of it preventing it from recurving out to sea.

I see. Thanks for the clarification

[JaxGator]

I haven't seen this mentioned yet on Storm2k but apparently the NHC has been following the wave that the GFS model was initially developing as it exited Africa (they've labeled it 50L).

Source: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal502016.dat

This is most likely experimental but the first time I've seen it.

https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=58145157
https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=58178CBB

Yeah, don't know what the NHC is doing either but it's cool I guess. And thank you to the members and Mods that helped to answer my question. Y'all's insight is appreciated.

[1900hurricane]

It's a test invest/storm. The NHC and other various agencies will do them every once and a while.

[USTropics]

It's a test invest/storm. The NHC and other various agencies will do them every once and a while.

To add to this:

• 1-49 are for actual tropical cyclones
• 50-69 are reserved for special use
• 70-79 are for internal use for training purposes
• 80-89 are for test invests
• 90-99 are for operational invests

The letter following the number just designates basin (L stands for Atlantic).

[JaxGator]

If at 12z both the gfs and euro show a well developed SURFACE low then its time to worry a bit. JB hasnt tweeted anything about it.

Well lately JB seems bored with the weather. He mostly tweets about politics now much to my dismay.

Its a bad sign when JB cant even find a glimmer of hope in the atlantic.

He said it would probably be quiet in July for the most part. Of course in the tropics, you can be sometimes be caught off guard but imo, we're right on track.

[Blown Away]

Well lately JB seems bored with the weather. He mostly tweets about politics now much to my dismay.

Its a bad sign when JB cant even find a glimmer of hope in the atlantic.

He said it would probably be quiet in July for the most part. Of course in the tropics, you can be sometimes be caught off guard but imo, we're right on track.

JB geared up to back his "Near Normal" season predictions...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well it looks like the models are continuing with nothing developing and the pattern seems to be stubbornly staying the same as it was in July on these runs now for August. The more these models run the better I feel about me updating my numbers. Seems like the models want to change things to fit the climo but then realize it is not changing at all. Dry air seems to be going no where anytime soon.

[NDG]

If you think that the GFS's 384 hr forecast will come to fruition or close to it I just hope you are not betting money on it with develpment or no development on it.

[tolakram]

Well it looks like the models are continuing with nothing developing and the pattern seems to be stubbornly staying the same as it was in July on these runs now for August. The more these models run the better I feel about me updating my numbers. Seems like the models want to change things to fit the climo but then realize it is not changing at all. Dry air seems to be going no where anytime soon.

What exactly are you looking at and why?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well it looks like the models are continuing with nothing developing and the pattern seems to be stubbornly staying the same as it was in July on these runs now for August. The more these models run the better I feel about me updating my numbers. Seems like the models want to change things to fit the climo but then realize it is not changing at all. Dry air seems to be going no where anytime soon.

What exactly are you looking at and why?

CMC, GFS, and NAVGEM all showing the same set up as July. Looks like increasing shear being added as well. I could be wrong but it is what I am seeing. Steadfast with dry air and shear.

[ninel conde]

:uarrow: If you think that the GFS's 384 hr forecast will come to fruition or close to it I just hope you are not betting money on it with develpment or no development on it.

Showing no development is far more likely to verify than if it had a well developed cane in a place where it could threaten land south and west of 25

[ninel conde]

Well it looks like the models are continuing with nothing developing and the pattern seems to be stubbornly staying the same as it was in July on these runs now for August. The more these models run the better I feel about me updating my numbers. Seems like the models want to change things to fit the climo but then realize it is not changing at all. Dry air seems to be going no where anytime soon.

That low over the nw atl, se canada is very persistent. above normal sst's near the US mean nothing as long as that low is there. I know JB talked about the newfoundland wheel awhile back but i see nothing indicating a high will lock in(and i mean lock in, not for 2 days)

[Alyono]

why is anyone surprised that the MDR is dead.

IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE DEAD THIS YEAR!!! The models are showing a season playing out LIKE IT SHOULD and LIKE THE ANALOGS SAID

Just keep an eye on that persistent trough off of the East Coast and in the northern Gulf. Something will likely develop from that

[srainhoutx]

The Super Ensembles suggest a more favorable pattern across the Western Caribbean and the Western Gulf. Watch for any stalled frontal boundary across the Northern Gulf Coast as well.

[ninel conde]

why is anyone surprised that the MDR is dead.

IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE DEAD THIS YEAR!!! The models are showing a season playing out LIKE IT SHOULD and LIKE THE ANALOGS SAID

Just keep an eye on that persistent trough off of the East Coast and in the northern Gulf. Something will likely develop from that

I agree that in this type of season we need to look for systems of non-tropical origin to possibly develop but i also think its highly unlikely to see anything of interest in those areas until a high locks in over the NW ATL. As long as that low dominates the NW ATL anything that might develop in close will be weak, strung out, and swept out quickly NE.