ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#381 Postby mobilebay » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:40 pm

Regardless of development, atleast we have something to talk about. I'm not a pro met but these favorable conditions so far especially in the eastern Caribbean has to mean something as for as the remainder of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#382 Postby perk » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:41 pm

Alyono wrote:With the ridging to the north, the initialization does not matter for the Gulf

Where is may pose an issue is for the intensity forecast into Belize. May keep it far enough north so that stays far enough away from Honduras to intensify.

Also, I have noticed that during the past 15 years, the models usually have a TC that turns too far north in the Caribbean and Gulf this time of year. This issue started with Chantal in 2001


That goes against the grain of what i have learned on this board and others, that is where a storm initializes does not matter because of ridging.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#383 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Seems to becoming more organized. But where is the center?


66W and 16.5N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#384 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:45 pm

perk wrote:
Alyono wrote:With the ridging to the north, the initialization does not matter for the Gulf

Where is may pose an issue is for the intensity forecast into Belize. May keep it far enough north so that stays far enough away from Honduras to intensify.

Also, I have noticed that during the past 15 years, the models usually have a TC that turns too far north in the Caribbean and Gulf this time of year. This issue started with Chantal in 2001


That goes against the grain of what i have learned on this board and others, that is where a storm initializes does not matter because of ridging.


If there was a weakness it could be of more significance. In the sense if there is a strengthening ridge, it is a block and a storm can only go so far north. If the ridge is weaker or displaced then that could change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#385 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:47 pm

Initialization matters in cases like Joaquin where small differences mean different weather features influence the track.

When you have the southern edge of a large ridge at say 20N, it doesn't matter if the models initialize the center at 16 or 14N. The storm cannot go north of 20N in either instance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#386 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:51 pm

Alyono, I agree I don't think initialization matters here. The ridge over the Gulf is strong and all of the global models are factoring that in pretty well and consequently are keeping this well south of the U.S...if anything they have trended even more south into Central America and Mexico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#387 Postby AJC3 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:09 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Seems to becoming more organized. But where is the center?


66W and 16.5N



Yep...the LL vort center is plainly evident on radar, passing south of PR and zipping westward toward the area south the Mona Passage.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#388 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:16 pm

Image

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 16m16 minutes ago
Buoy south of 97L shows falling pressure, and easterly winds slowing down due to the surface low eroding trade winds
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#389 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:Alyono, I agree I don't think initialization matters here. The ridge over the Gulf is strong and all of the global models are factoring that in pretty well and consequently are keeping this well south of the U.S...if anything they have trended even more south into Central America and Mexico.

As has often been said, the trend is your friend. With so many models trending southward, I doubt this is even going to make it into the Bay of Campeche. Of course, it's always wise to keep an eye on these systems, but as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, folks on this board look at every thunderstorm in West Africa to anyway (or something like that :lol: ).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#390 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:39 pm

I've mapped out the locations of the 850mb (red), 700mb (green), and 500mb (blue) vorticity maxima as indicated by CIMSS analyses at 21 UTC today, superimposed on visible imagery of Invest 97L.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#391 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:41 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#392 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:10 pm


Really gives a clear picture of the situation. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#393 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:18 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.


The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#394 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:21 pm

Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#395 Postby centuryv58 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:23 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713




Is it Earl or Erika up next??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#396 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:24 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713




Is it Earl or Erika up next??


He was talking about this system seems similar to Erika last season that died in the Caribbean.

Video of Tropical Storm Erika from last season:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7ahZO4CydU
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#397 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:41 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.


The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.


I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#398 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:45 pm

Hammy wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.


The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.


I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.


Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#399 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:47 pm

Hammy wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.


The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.


I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.



Remember it is very early in the model sequence. Many thing can and will change over the upcoming days. I think we should all just watch and wait
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#400 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:56 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.


I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.


Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.


Best looking wave in a few years in my opinion lol but models did a good job except being too aggressive. Not a good sign for development this season if a wave cannot form in conditions forecasted by the models in the next few days. Warmest water on record, not much shear, and slowing down. Should be things that help create a monster storm but models show nothing really.
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