ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[mobilebay]

Regardless of development, atleast we have something to talk about. I'm not a pro met but these favorable conditions so far especially in the eastern Caribbean has to mean something as for as the remainder of the season.

[perk]

With the ridging to the north, the initialization does not matter for the Gulf

Where is may pose an issue is for the intensity forecast into Belize. May keep it far enough north so that stays far enough away from Honduras to intensify.

Also, I have noticed that during the past 15 years, the models usually have a TC that turns too far north in the Caribbean and Gulf this time of year. This issue started with Chantal in 2001

That goes against the grain of what i have learned on this board and others, that is where a storm initializes does not matter because of ridging.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems to becoming more organized. But where is the center?

66W and 16.5N

[Ntxw]

With the ridging to the north, the initialization does not matter for the Gulf

Where is may pose an issue is for the intensity forecast into Belize. May keep it far enough north so that stays far enough away from Honduras to intensify.

Also, I have noticed that during the past 15 years, the models usually have a TC that turns too far north in the Caribbean and Gulf this time of year. This issue started with Chantal in 2001

That goes against the grain of what i have learned on this board and others, that is where a storm initializes does not matter because of ridging.

If there was a weakness it could be of more significance. In the sense if there is a strengthening ridge, it is a block and a storm can only go so far north. If the ridge is weaker or displaced then that could change.

[Alyono]

Initialization matters in cases like Joaquin where small differences mean different weather features influence the track.

When you have the southern edge of a large ridge at say 20N, it doesn't matter if the models initialize the center at 16 or 14N. The storm cannot go north of 20N in either instance

[gatorcane]

Alyono, I agree I don't think initialization matters here. The ridge over the Gulf is strong and all of the global models are factoring that in pretty well and consequently are keeping this well south of the U.S...if anything they have trended even more south into Central America and Mexico.

[AJC3]

Seems to becoming more organized. But where is the center?

66W and 16.5N

Yep...the LL vort center is plainly evident on radar, passing south of PR and zipping westward toward the area south the Mona Passage.

[srainhoutx]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 16m16 minutes ago
Buoy south of 97L shows falling pressure, and easterly winds slowing down due to the surface low eroding trade winds

[abajan]

Alyono, I agree I don't think initialization matters here. The ridge over the Gulf is strong and all of the global models are factoring that in pretty well and consequently are keeping this well south of the U.S...if anything they have trended even more south into Central America and Mexico.

As has often been said, the trend is your friend. With so many models trending southward, I doubt this is even going to make it into the Bay of Campeche. Of course, it's always wise to keep an eye on these systems, but as someone mentioned earlier in this thread, folks on this board look at every thunderstorm in West Africa to anyway (or something like that ).

[TheAustinMan]

I've mapped out the locations of the 850mb (red), 700mb (green), and 500mb (blue) vorticity maxima as indicated by CIMSS analyses at 21 UTC today, superimposed on visible imagery of Invest 97L.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/759786646686593024

[abajan]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/759786646686593024

Really gives a clear picture of the situation.

[Ptarmigan]

Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.

The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713

[centuryv58]

Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713

Is it Earl or Erika up next??

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could be waiting for the E named storm after 97L runs aground in Central America and this may help it do so.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759874613899763713

Is it Earl or Erika up next??

He was talking about this system seems similar to Erika last season that died in the Caribbean.

Video of Tropical Storm Erika from last season:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7ahZO4CydU

[Hammy]

Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.

The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.

I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.

[ninel conde]

Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.

The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.

I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.

Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.

[Tireman4]

Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.

The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.

I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.

Remember it is very early in the model sequence. Many thing can and will change over the upcoming days. I think we should all just watch and wait

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 18Z track models are done early on. I expect a northerly trend in the next forecast run.

I honestly no longer see this developing at all--the models, including the NAM (the northern outlier) have all drastically shifted to the South, and even the GFS (the northernmost of the 'main 3') barely shows it making it into the GoM.

Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.

Best looking wave in a few years in my opinion lol but models did a good job except being too aggressive. Not a good sign for development this season if a wave cannot form in conditions forecasted by the models in the next few days. Warmest water on record, not much shear, and slowing down. Should be things that help create a monster storm but models show nothing really.