ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[leanne_uk]

Thank you so much.... that is exactly the info I was trying to get hold of

Are we thinking that this may cause issues for Jamaica or will it just bring some rain and wind?
I've got friends out there on holiday at the moment and they are asking questions about the situation.
(I'm currently in hospital so don't have my full net access to check this out in depth)

Hi

Yes, according to the NHC, it is likely to bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to Jamaica by tonight. An excerpt from the 2 PM update of the area today from the Tropical Weather Outlook page:

Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Alyono,they add this to the TWO about the next mission.

An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Tuesday morning.

[weathaguyry]

If I had to guess, I would say that this would get upgraded at either a special advisory at 8:00AM tomorrow or they may just wait until 11:00AM, 5:00AM is too early, because recon probably wouldn't even reach the area by then.

[Hammy]

There are a few spotty areas that are likely low cloud rain on the Jamaica radar, just SE of the km in at the 210 km mark, that appear to have an ENE component to the movement, so this could actually be attempting to close off at this point--it's the strongest evidence as I can't tell from satellite now since the sun has set.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/earl16/Earl_2Aug16_Jamaica.gif

[weathaguyry]

I mean, the only thing stopping this from being Earl is that the NHC isn't fully convinced that this is a closed circulation, so if we can get some solid evidence tonight that this is closed from the Jamaica radar, then the NHC will most likely upgrade it

[tarheelprogrammer]

What is that big blow up of convection to the west of Earl?

[Hammy]

I mean, the only thing stopping this from being Earl is that the NHC isn't fully convinced that this is a closed circulation, so if we can get some solid evidence tonight that this is closed from the Jamaica radar, then the NHC will most likely upgrade it

At this point, since there's a plane planned in the next 12 hours, they'll probably just wait unless they get buoy information. If it was another day or so without the plane they'd probably use the radar if there was enough evidence though.

[TheAustinMan]

RapidScat scatterometer pass at 21:49 UTC earlier today.

[weathaguyry]

I mean, the only thing stopping this from being Earl is that the NHC isn't fully convinced that this is a closed circulation, so if we can get some solid evidence tonight that this is closed from the Jamaica radar, then the NHC will most likely upgrade it

At this point, since there's a plane planned in the next 12 hours, they'll probably just wait unless they get buoy information. If it was another day or so without the plane they'd probably use the radar if there was enough evidence though.

Ok, I think all of us have been at least a little antsy ever since the recon mission turned back

[tarheelprogrammer]

Jamaican radar appears to be showing some sort of circulation to the southeast of the island.

[tailgater]

t numbers down a little.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/2345 UTC 17.2N 74.6W T2.5/3.0 97L

[Alyono]

the rapidscat also shows that the greatest surface turning is not with the wave. It is with the broad low in the SW caribbean.

Maybe the models not named ECMWF were correct on the genesis mechanism

[Hammy]

the rapidscat also shows that the greatest surface turning is not with the wave. It is with the broad low in the SW caribbean.

Maybe the models not named ECMWF were correct on the genesis mechanism

Is that why the vorticity appears to get pulled SW before 'bouncing' off of Honduras around the time of development?

[wxman57]

Jamaican radar appears to be showing some sort of circulation to the southeast of the island.

Note that radar in Jamaica is looking way above the surface that far out.

[Alyono]

the rapidscat also shows that the greatest surface turning is not with the wave. It is with the broad low in the SW caribbean.

Maybe the models not named ECMWF were correct on the genesis mechanism

Is that why the vorticity appears to get pulled SW before 'bouncing' off of Honduras around the time of development?

probably

[Rgv20]

Not saying I agree but worth noting that some of the 12zCMC Ensembles are showing 97L gaining latitude once it enters the BOC.

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity looks stretched vertically according to CIMSS maps, not what you want to see if the system has a closed surface low.

[tolakram]

Live IR view
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[wflamholtz]

I wanna give my opinion on this system, which is heavily influenced by Tropical Tidbits discussion from tonight. Invest 97L hasn't developed yet mainly due to the lower-level vorticity moving faster than the mid-level circulation. The trade winds are essentially advecting that vorticity eastward, inhibiting it from consolidating. On several conditions it has come close, but the mixture of the decoupling of the two entities and the forward speed of vorticity/wave axis has not allowed it to be classified. So in a way, it is being sheared , but not in the traditional way.

As the storm moves past Jamaica, the trade winds slow, which should cause the entirety of the system to consolidate. At this point, a TC will develop, if not before. The SW movement of the vorticity you see in the models is basically the vorticity following the orientation of what's left of the wave axis, as it will be the mode of steering in the short term. The SW movement will be very subtle and will be a blip in 97L's progression, and the W/WNW movement will resume. Now a colleague of mine and I earlier were looking at the regions in the Atlantic Basin which rapid intensification is most significant/most likely. That happens to be the W Caribbean based on the historical record, just out of coincidence. The environment as the storm moves in the Bay of Honduras will be pretty good, where this storm may be able to make some noise. Maybe not an RI per say, but something significant is possible. After it hits the Yucatan, it remains to be seen where it ends up on the other side, and truthfully, is too early to tell. It may make it into the S Bay of Campeche, or get buried in Central America. So here are my thoughts, and I welcome any comments or criticism.

[Kazmit]

I wanna give my opinion on this system, which is heavily influenced by Tropical Tidbits discussion from tonight. Invest 97L hasn't developed yet mainly due to the lower-level vorticity moving faster than the mid-level circulation. The trade winds are essentially advecting that vorticity eastward, inhibiting it from consolidating. On several conditions it has come close, but the mixture of the decoupling of the two entities and the forward speed of vorticity/wave axis has not allowed it to be classified. So in a way, it is being sheared , but not in the traditional way.

As the storm moves past Jamaica, the trade winds slow, which should cause the entirety of the system to consolidate. At this point, a TC will develop, if not before. The SW movement of the vorticity you see in the models is basically the vorticity following the orientation of what's left of the wave axis, as it will be the mode of steering in the short term. The SW movement will be very subtle and will be a blip in 97L's progression, and the W/WNW movement will resume. Now a colleague of mine and I earlier were looking at the regions in the Atlantic Basin which rapid intensification is most significant/most likely. That happens to be the W Caribbean based on the historical record, just out of coincidence. The environment as the storm moves in the Bay of Honduras will be pretty good, where this storm may be able to make some noise. Maybe not an RI per say, but something significant is possible. After it hits the Yucatan, it remains to be seen where it ends up on the other side, and truthfully, is too early to tell. It may make it into the S Bay of Campeche, or get buried in Central America. So here are my thoughts, and I welcome any comments or criticism.

Nice thoughts. It is on the cusp of being Earl, but it just can't develop fully. Even as a wave, it still is producing TS conditions nonetheless. And over the western caribbean it should intensify before making landfall, and possibly remerge into the southern Bay of Campeche.