#779 Postby wflamholtz » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:17 pm
I wanna give my opinion on this system, which is heavily influenced by Tropical Tidbits discussion from tonight. Invest 97L hasn't developed yet mainly due to the lower-level vorticity moving faster than the mid-level circulation. The trade winds are essentially advecting that vorticity eastward, inhibiting it from consolidating. On several conditions it has come close, but the mixture of the decoupling of the two entities and the forward speed of vorticity/wave axis has not allowed it to be classified. So in a way, it is being sheared , but not in the traditional way.
As the storm moves past Jamaica, the trade winds slow, which should cause the entirety of the system to consolidate. At this point, a TC will develop, if not before. The SW movement of the vorticity you see in the models is basically the vorticity following the orientation of what's left of the wave axis, as it will be the mode of steering in the short term. The SW movement will be very subtle and will be a blip in 97L's progression, and the W/WNW movement will resume. Now a colleague of mine and I earlier were looking at the regions in the Atlantic Basin which rapid intensification is most significant/most likely. That happens to be the W Caribbean based on the historical record, just out of coincidence. The environment as the storm moves in the Bay of Honduras will be pretty good, where this storm may be able to make some noise. Maybe not an RI per say, but something significant is possible. After it hits the Yucatan, it remains to be seen where it ends up on the other side, and truthfully, is too early to tell. It may make it into the S Bay of Campeche, or get buried in Central America. So here are my thoughts, and I welcome any comments or criticism.
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