Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#21 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:57 pm

Just modelstorms. GFS turning clouds in to jupiter great red spots like old times. I've seen some monsters before...never forget 2005. You would of thought the world was ending!
1 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt

TheStormExpert

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#22 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:13 am

You can track the vorticity of this wave on the latest 00z Euro as it tracks directly over the Greater Antilles and into the Florida Peninsula. Has the look like it wants to try and spin up prior to running into Hispaniola when it reaches the NE Caribbean. After it exits Florida to the NE it is so stretched out and weak from tracking over so many land masses that development seems unlikely.

The GFS does not show this so it may be the Euro being overly aggressive again.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#23 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote:You can track the vorticity of this wave on the latest 00z Euro as it tracks directly over the Greater Antilles and into the Florida Peninsula. Has the look like it wants to try and spin up prior to running into Hispaniola when it reaches the NE Caribbean. After it exits Florida to the NE it is so stretched out and weak from tracking over so many land masses that development seems unlikely.

The GFS does not show this so it may be the Euro being overly aggressive again.

Image


Interesting to note though, the Euro showed almost the exact same scenario with 97L back when it was in the eastern Atlantic. It's quite poor at detecting development beyond about 72-96 hours.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4230
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#24 Postby abajan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:34 am

Looking pretty healthy this morning:

Image
0 likes   

colbroe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:57 am

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#25 Postby colbroe » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:35 am

This wave has started to get its act together ,and should be a concern for the Windward and Leeward islands ,as there is a high pressure system in place.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#26 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:41 am

This wave looks better this morning and concentrated convection. I think this one could be trouble for the eastern Carib. Islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
alienstorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
Location: Miami Fla western suburb

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#27 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:42 am

Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TheStormExpert

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#28 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:05 am

This could be a problem for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but their will likely be strong easterlies like which kept 97L from developing.
0 likes   

User avatar
centuryv58
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:24 pm
Location: Southeast Florida

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#29 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:23 am

Maybe will develop. The MDR is more active than the forecasts thought it would be.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4230
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#30 Postby abajan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:49 am

alienstorm wrote:Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.

Yes, the ULL is getting stronger but I've noticed that, unlike yesterday, it's now moving north instead of southwest.
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Wave in far East Atlantic

#31 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:56 am

alienstorm wrote:Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.


I have to disagree, in fact I see overall anticyclonic flow in it's path. Seems to be a parent upper 200mb anticyclone posibbly to move west in tandem with this feature. Easterly shear may inhibit development a bit unless this system were to build its own upper high over itself, which given the present convection, may be attempting to do.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#32 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:10 am

Image

Seems to be holding together pretty well.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#33 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:30 am

This wave is coming into view on far-right-hand side of Atlantic wide view. Note ULL with all of the shear that goes along with it is moving northward out of the MDR and upper-levels appear to be moistening now across the MDR (less orange in the WV loop) as one would expect as we start to move through August:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
alienstorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 496
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
Location: Miami Fla western suburb

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#34 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:06 am

0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Socalhurcnegirl227
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 267
Age: 36
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#35 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:43 am

wonder how long they will take to label this an invest? :lol:
0 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#36 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:47 am

12z GFS develops this weakly in the Western Caribbean, sends it over the Yucatan and into Mexico:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:50 am

Almost same track as EARL.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#38 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:53 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N22W
to 06N23W moving west 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 07N-12N
between 26W-31W.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#39 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:38 pm

0 likes   

znel52

Re: Wave in East Atlantic

#40 Postby znel52 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:This wave is coming into view on far-right-hand side of Atlantic wide view. Note ULL with all of the shear that goes along with it is moving northward out of the MDR and upper-levels appear to be moistening now across the MDR (less orange in the WV loop) as one would expect as we start to move through August:

Image


Looks like the ULL helped suck some of the dry air in the MDR up northward.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: TomballEd and 37 guests