Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just modelstorms. GFS turning clouds in to jupiter great red spots like old times. I've seen some monsters before...never forget 2005. You would of thought the world was ending!

[TheStormExpert]

You can track the vorticity of this wave on the latest 00z Euro as it tracks directly over the Greater Antilles and into the Florida Peninsula. Has the look like it wants to try and spin up prior to running into Hispaniola when it reaches the NE Caribbean. After it exits Florida to the NE it is so stretched out and weak from tracking over so many land masses that development seems unlikely.

The GFS does not show this so it may be the Euro being overly aggressive again.

[Hammy]

You can track the vorticity of this wave on the latest 00z Euro as it tracks directly over the Greater Antilles and into the Florida Peninsula. Has the look like it wants to try and spin up prior to running into Hispaniola when it reaches the NE Caribbean. After it exits Florida to the NE it is so stretched out and weak from tracking over so many land masses that development seems unlikely.

The GFS does not show this so it may be the Euro being overly aggressive again.

Interesting to note though, the Euro showed almost the exact same scenario with 97L back when it was in the eastern Atlantic. It's quite poor at detecting development beyond about 72-96 hours.

[abajan]

Looking pretty healthy this morning:

[colbroe]

This wave has started to get its act together ,and should be a concern for the Windward and Leeward islands ,as there is a high pressure system in place.

[Dean4Storms]

This wave looks better this morning and concentrated convection. I think this one could be trouble for the eastern Carib. Islands.

[alienstorm]

Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.

[TheStormExpert]

This could be a problem for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but their will likely be strong easterlies like which kept 97L from developing.

[centuryv58]

Maybe will develop. The MDR is more active than the forecasts thought it would be.

[abajan]

Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.

Yes, the ULL is getting stronger but I've noticed that, unlike yesterday, it's now moving north instead of southwest.

[chaser1]

Conditions are to hostile for any development, there is a huge ULL in the Atlantic that is causing shear and it is forecast to get worse.

I have to disagree, in fact I see overall anticyclonic flow in it's path. Seems to be a parent upper 200mb anticyclone posibbly to move west in tandem with this feature. Easterly shear may inhibit development a bit unless this system were to build its own upper high over itself, which given the present convection, may be attempting to do.

[rockyman]

Seems to be holding together pretty well.

[gatorcane]

This wave is coming into view on far-right-hand side of Atlantic wide view. Note ULL with all of the shear that goes along with it is moving northward out of the MDR and upper-levels appear to be moistening now across the MDR (less orange in the WV loop) as one would expect as we start to move through August:

[alienstorm]

There is a twist on the view

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 094500.gif

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

wonder how long they will take to label this an invest?

[Siker]

12z GFS develops this weakly in the Western Caribbean, sends it over the Yucatan and into Mexico:

[cycloneye]

Almost same track as EARL.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N22W
to 06N23W moving west 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 07N-12N
between 26W-31W.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/760527237099773952

[znel52]

This wave is coming into view on far-right-hand side of Atlantic wide view. Note ULL with all of the shear that goes along with it is moving northward out of the MDR and upper-levels appear to be moistening now across the MDR (less orange in the WV loop) as one would expect as we start to move through August:

Looks like the ULL helped suck some of the dry air in the MDR up northward.