Area of convection in SE Caribbean

[abajan]

There's an area of convection in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which has been drifting westerly over the last few days and is currently around 8N 37W. May be nothing but seems like it bears watching:

[Gustywind]

Good catch Abajan . Interresting feature. Let's see if this thing could be something more organize during the next couple of days.

[Gustywind]

Here is maybe our next guest
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W
from 5N-13N moving west 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 6N-10N between 34W-37W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016


A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with an axis
that extends from near 14N37W to 05N37W, moving westward at
around 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. High moisture surrounds
this wave south of 10N. A tilted 700 mb trough is evident across
this region. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 34W and 39W.

[gatorcane]

Latest EC shows much stronger low-level vorticity of this wave once in the Caribbean when compared to the 00z run

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS shows some possible development in the long-range as the wave approaches the Yucatan like what it was showing for Earl in the long-range

[blp]

Yes and the 12z CMC is also showing a tight vorticity taking it North of the islands into Bahamas. Need to keep an eye on this one could sneak up on us.

[floridasun78]

Yes and the 12z CMC is also showing a tight vorticity taking it North of the islands into Bahamas. Need to keep an eye on this one could sneak up on us.

wait other show it cmc not good tropical model

[blp]

Yes and the 12z CMC is also showing a tight vorticity taking it North of the islands into Bahamas. Need to keep an eye on this one could sneak up on us.

wait other show it cmc not good tropical model

The CMC has improved IMO and it no longer develops everything and if not mistaken was one of the first on the idea of Earl going further south when the GFS and Euro where slaming it into Hispaniola so it has gained some of my respect lately.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS at hr 114 seems to be showing a sharp wave with a good 850 vort with it, I do believe that the models are starting to come aboard with this wave and may need to be watched in the next week to 10 days because this could go 1 of 3 ways

1. Becomes a tropical storm or hurricane in the western Caribbean and follow a similar track to Earl
2. Becomes a tropical storm or hurricane in the western Caribbean and moves north to somewhere on the Gulf coast
3. Doesnt develop until the EPAC

so this does bear watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[blp]

The 0zGFS at hr 114 seems to be showing a sharp wave with a good 850 vort with it, I do believe that the models are starting to come aboard with this wave and may need to be watched in the next week to 10 days because this could go 1 of 3 ways

1. Becomes a tropical storm or hurricane in the western Caribbean and follow a similar track to Earl
2. Becomes a tropical storm or hurricane in the western Caribbean and moves north to somewhere on the Gulf coast
3. Doesnt develop until the EPAC

so this does bear watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yes 00z GFS now onboard with this strong vorticity.

[Hurricaneman]

Also reminds me of Earl development wise on most of the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 41W
from 6N-14N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is from 6N-8N between 41W-42W

[NDG]

06z GFS shows this tropical wave coming through the Windward & Leeward Islands as a strong tropical wave on Thursday. Fairly good vorticity with an UL anticyclone on top of it. Has it crashing into Hispaniola.

[Siker]

The overnight Euro dropped the the strong vorticity signature for this wave; looked as if the western half choked off the eastern half, preventing any sort of organization before being caught up in the trades.

[TexasF6]

You can see MLR in the wave. It has a nice rotation, but needs to climb a little to have a shot at anything.









The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kazmit]

This could have a shot of development if it stays south of Hispaniola and Cuba, and enters the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

abajan,made an update to the title of thread as the area you mentioned at the first place has raced west and now is East of Trinidad & Tobago.

[abajan]

abajan,made an update to the title of thread as the area you mentioned at the first place has raced west and now is East of Trinidad & Tobago.

Yeah, so I noticed. It's moved so fast that I'm not even sure it's the same area or if the first one dissipated and a new one formed.

[Siker]

12z Euro maintains an 850 reflection for this feature, eventually ending up over the Yucatan in 10 days.