Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

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Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 14, 2016 12:36 am

The models seem to be indicating development with this one and does have some good convection{the one behind pouch17}

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali

#2 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 14, 2016 7:57 am

Pouch17L could clear out any unfavorable conditions for this guy. Looks like we could see a "96L" and "97L" scenario here (from late July).
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:05 pm

ECMWF at 12z develops this wave into a Tropical Storm.

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali

#4 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:07 pm

And it is intensifying as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the long-range on that Euro run
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:16 pm

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:47 pm

Better image of this wave approaching the Lesser Antilles in 10 days.

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#7 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:28 pm

it long way let what happen
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 14, 2016 11:45 pm

The 0zGFS now is showing development into a possible tropical cyclone staying south of 98L

Heading for bermuda on this run at 384hrs

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#9 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:14 am

00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:27 am

Siker wrote:00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.


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00z Euro?
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#11 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:15 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Siker wrote:00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.


Image

00z Euro?


Full-res is 987mb.
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#12 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:54 am

NHC won't mention this until it emerges, right?
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#13 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:57 am

Kazmit_ wrote:NHC won't mention this until it emerges, right?


They won't mention this until it has a reasonable chance to develop within 5 days. Most models take some time to develop this after leaving Africa, so we're unlikely to see this marked while it's still well inland (maybe near the coast, however).
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#14 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:00 am

06z GFS strikes Puerto Rico as a strong TS before rapidly deepening near the Bahamas.

Final frame:

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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#15 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:04 am

Image

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:24 am

The important thing is both main models agree on developing Pouch 21L no matter how are the intensities and tracks later on.
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#17 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:42 am

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/2cWJPFB.jpg

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.

It's 2 weeks out but there would not be a trough on that particular run of the 06z GFS to just sweep it NE out to sea away from the U.S. so it would likely head due north straight into Eastern North Carolina.

Image

Image
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#18 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 15, 2016 7:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/2cWJPFB.jpg

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.

It's 2 weeks out but there would not be a trough on that particular run of the 06z GFS to just sweep it NE out to sea away from the U.S. so it would likely head due north straight into Eastern North Carolina.

Image

Image

Wow, that shows it getting down to 942 mbars, that could be a weak Cat 4. It's a bit early to tell, but that run looks like a destructive one.
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#19 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 15, 2016 7:11 am

on the full EC, the system is turning back west at hour 240
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Re: Tropical wave near Mali (Pouch 21L)

#20 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 15, 2016 7:47 am

Wow, really. Doomsday for eastern NC. But, it's the two week GFS. Not to be taken seriously. It is interesting though. It shows the typical Puerto Rico Outer Banks connection. It is amazing how many storms that have passed over Puerto Rico have also passed over the OuterBanks.
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