Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

[Hurricaneman]

The models seem to be indicating development with this one and does have some good convection{the one behind pouch17}

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[Kazmit]

Pouch17L could clear out any unfavorable conditions for this guy. Looks like we could see a "96L" and "97L" scenario here (from late July).

[cycloneye]

ECMWF at 12z develops this wave into a Tropical Storm.

[gatorcane]

And it is intensifying as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in the long-range on that Euro run

[cycloneye]

Is now Pouch 21L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016/P21L.html

[TheStormExpert]

Better image of this wave approaching the Lesser Antilles in 10 days.

[floridasun78]

it long way let what happen

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS now is showing development into a possible tropical cyclone staying south of 98L

Heading for bermuda on this run at 384hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Siker]

00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.

00z Euro?

[Siker]

00z Euro ends with this as a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.

00z Euro?

Full-res is 987mb.

[Kazmit]

NHC won't mention this until it emerges, right?

[Siker]

NHC won't mention this until it emerges, right?

They won't mention this until it has a reasonable chance to develop within 5 days. Most models take some time to develop this after leaving Africa, so we're unlikely to see this marked while it's still well inland (maybe near the coast, however).

[Siker]

06z GFS strikes Puerto Rico as a strong TS before rapidly deepening near the Bahamas.

Final frame:

[Kingarabian]

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.

[cycloneye]

The important thing is both main models agree on developing Pouch 21L no matter how are the intensities and tracks later on.

[TheStormExpert]

http://i.imgur.com/2cWJPFB.jpg

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.

It's 2 weeks out but there would not be a trough on that particular run of the 06z GFS to just sweep it NE out to sea away from the U.S. so it would likely head due north straight into Eastern North Carolina.

[Kazmit]

http://i.imgur.com/2cWJPFB.jpg

Oh boy.

GFS keeps it weak just until it passes close to or over the islands. Then begins to slowly bomb it out as it gradually recurves. So if it manages to stay weak and strengthen later then it can be a big problem.

Of course its 16 days out. But in the past 5 seasons we've seen this scenario more often than not. Hopefully the Euro solution verifies and this thing gets going quick so it can feel the weakness sooner.

It's 2 weeks out but there would not be a trough on that particular run of the 06z GFS to just sweep it NE out to sea away from the U.S. so it would likely head due north straight into Eastern North Carolina.

Wow, that shows it getting down to 942 mbars, that could be a weak Cat 4. It's a bit early to tell, but that run looks like a destructive one.

[Alyono]

on the full EC, the system is turning back west at hour 240

[OuterBanker]

Wow, really. Doomsday for eastern NC. But, it's the two week GFS. Not to be taken seriously. It is interesting though. It shows the typical Puerto Rico Outer Banks connection. It is amazing how many storms that have passed over Puerto Rico have also passed over the OuterBanks.