ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours euro takes a wnw bend

[tolakram]

Nothing much left by 120

[wxman57]

It's really the GFS that's shifting westward to match the Euro. I'm plotting both models on the same map and they're darn close together through 96hrs. Both have the center about 100 miles left of the NHC's track on Sunday morning - near 21N/51W, probably as a depression (1010-1013mb pressure).

[Aric Dunn]

pretty much only convection has built 2/3 the way around the center when this image was taken. since it has grown some more.

[wxman57]

Comparing the GFS & Euro out to 162hrs, the GFS is about 200 miles NE of the Euro next Wednesday morning. Both are indicating slowly rising pressure (TD or remnant low). Big trof to the west signals recurve.

Oh, new model guidance says "Fiona" up top.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC WED AUG 17 2016

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL062016) 20160817 1800 UTC

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the high-res Euro on my workstation. I see 1000mb on the 66 & 72 hr panels then a steadily rising pressure beyond then, up to 1009mb by Sunday morning and 1014mb on Monday morning. Remnant low on the Euro.

[gatorcane]

Yeah plus the Euro shows quite a trough in a week's time along the East Coast of the U.S so even the remnant low recurves. So far this summer it's been nothing but strong Bermuda Highs but the pattern of a weak or no Bermuda High (i.e. the Bermuda Low) seems to be starting just in time to at least help recurve this system. Still nothing set in stone but that looks quite possible, probably will know the steering pattern better by the weekend.

[Blown Away]

I'm looking at the high-res Euro on my workstation. I see 1000mb on the 66 & 72 hr panels then a steadily rising pressure beyond then, up to 1009mb by Sunday morning and 1014mb on Monday morning. Remnant low on the Euro.

It's that hostile MDR... Gotta find the sweet spot in the N Atlantic or BOC...

[johngaltfla]

Yup, Navy/NRL page has this as Fiona also. Let's hope this stays a fish as Florida does not need any more rainfall for a while, at least on the West Coast.

[Blown Away]

JB's Thoughts On TD6...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm FIONA
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:


Location: 14.7°N 37.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

[Hurricaneman]

http://i68.tinypic.com/516k2x.jpg

JB's Thoughts On TD6...

I'm think something in between the 2 forecasts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[USTropics]

NHC AL TC file updated with Fiona as well:

Code: Select all

FIONA, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2016, TS, S, 2016081400, 9999999999, , 013, , , 1, WARNING, 1, AL062016

[Alyono]

looks to have intensified. Still, I'm not convinced this will last 5 days. This has the feel of one of last year's storms

[abajan]

looks to have intensified. Still, I'm not convinced this will last 5 days. This has the feel of one of last year's storms

It's reminding me of Andrew: time of year and track. (Not suggesting this will do anything like what that monster did.)

[gatorcane]

not to mention that 1992 is a year many of us identified as a possible analog year. That said there is absolutely no evidence I can see with the model runs so far that this could pull an Andrew but at the same time, we are still a few days too far out with the model runs to have more confidence. The models are hinting at troughing along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in a week's time which would be good news.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks to me that 5 or 6 ensembles of the GFS has this getting to 70W or even a little west of that and wouldn't be surprised if the 18zGFS is west of Bermuda and if that trend continues the east coast of the US may need to monitor Fiona for such trends

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[wxman57]

JB's track looks pretty good to me - a good match to the GFS/EC/CMC ensembles. However, Fiona (to-be) is forecast to be a depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses north of 20N.

[TheStormExpert]

JB's track looks pretty good to me - a good match to the GFS/EC/CMC ensembles. However, Fiona (to-be) is forecast to be a depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses north of 20N.

Do you think Fiona could find better UL conditions in the Western Atlantic?

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: not to mention that 1992 is a year many of us identified as a possible analog year. That said there is absolutely no evidence I can see with the model runs so far that this could pull an Andrew but at the same time, we are still a few days too far out with the model runs to have more confidence. The models are hinting at troughing along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in a week's time which would be good news.

As I see it, IF there really is going to be troughing along the CONUS eastern seaboard in a week's time as the models are hinting, that would be good news and would mean an easy recurve east of the Conus. However, a week's time on the models means that the troughing is not yet set in stone. So, I''m not yet completely writing this off for the eastern seaboard keeping the 1906 storm, Esther of 1961, and Fred of 2009 in mind even though the odds are very low in my mind.