ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
120 hours euro takes a wnw bend
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Nothing much left by 120


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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
It's really the GFS that's shifting westward to match the Euro. I'm plotting both models on the same map and they're darn close together through 96hrs. Both have the center about 100 miles left of the NHC's track on Sunday morning - near 21N/51W, probably as a depression (1010-1013mb pressure).
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
pretty much only convection has built 2/3 the way around the center when this image was taken. since it has grown some more.


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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Comparing the GFS & Euro out to 162hrs, the GFS is about 200 miles NE of the Euro next Wednesday morning. Both are indicating slowly rising pressure (TD or remnant low). Big trof to the west signals recurve.
Oh, new model guidance says "Fiona" up top.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC WED AUG 17 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL062016) 20160817 1800 UTC
Oh, new model guidance says "Fiona" up top.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC WED AUG 17 2016
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL062016) 20160817 1800 UTC
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
I'm looking at the high-res Euro on my workstation. I see 1000mb on the 66 & 72 hr panels then a steadily rising pressure beyond then, up to 1009mb by Sunday morning and 1014mb on Monday morning. Remnant low on the Euro.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Yeah plus the Euro shows quite a trough in a week's time along the East Coast of the U.S so even the remnant low recurves. So far this summer it's been nothing but strong Bermuda Highs but the pattern of a weak or no Bermuda High (i.e. the Bermuda Low) seems to be starting just in time to at least help recurve this system. Still nothing set in stone but that looks quite possible, probably will know the steering pattern better by the weekend.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
wxman57 wrote:I'm looking at the high-res Euro on my workstation. I see 1000mb on the 66 & 72 hr panels then a steadily rising pressure beyond then, up to 1009mb by Sunday morning and 1014mb on Monday morning. Remnant low on the Euro.
It's that hostile MDR... Gotta find the sweet spot in the N Atlantic or BOC...

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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yup, Navy/NRL page has this as Fiona also. Let's hope this stays a fish as Florida does not need any more rainfall for a while, at least on the West Coast.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

JB's Thoughts On TD6...
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Tropical Storm FIONA
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:
Location: 14.7°N 37.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:
Location: 14.7°N 37.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:http://i68.tinypic.com/516k2x.jpg
JB's Thoughts On TD6...
I'm think something in between the 2 forecasts
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
NHC AL TC file updated with Fiona as well:
Code: Select all
FIONA, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2016, TS, S, 2016081400, 9999999999, , 013, , , 1, WARNING, 1, AL062016
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
looks to have intensified. Still, I'm not convinced this will last 5 days. This has the feel of one of last year's storms
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Alyono wrote:looks to have intensified. Still, I'm not convinced this will last 5 days. This has the feel of one of last year's storms
It's reminding me of Andrew: time of year and track. (Not suggesting this will do anything like what that monster did.)
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
It looks to me that 5 or 6 ensembles of the GFS has this getting to 70W or even a little west of that and wouldn't be surprised if the 18zGFS is west of Bermuda and if that trend continues the east coast of the US may need to monitor Fiona for such trends
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
JB's track looks pretty good to me - a good match to the GFS/EC/CMC ensembles. However, Fiona (to-be) is forecast to be a depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses north of 20N.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:JB's track looks pretty good to me - a good match to the GFS/EC/CMC ensembles. However, Fiona (to-be) is forecast to be a depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses north of 20N.
Do you think Fiona could find better UL conditions in the Western Atlantic?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: not to mention that 1992 is a year many of us identified as a possible analog year. That said there is absolutely no evidence I can see with the model runs so far that this could pull an Andrew but at the same time, we are still a few days too far out with the model runs to have more confidence. The models are hinting at troughing along the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in a week's time which would be good news.
As I see it, IF there really is going to be troughing along the CONUS eastern seaboard in a week's time as the models are hinting, that would be good news and would mean an easy recurve east of the Conus. However, a week's time on the models means that the troughing is not yet set in stone. So, I''m not yet completely writing this off for the eastern seaboard keeping the 1906 storm, Esther of 1961, and Fred of 2009 in mind even though the odds are very low in my mind.
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