ATL: HERMINE - Models

[NDG]

12z GFS shows a strengthening TS as it crosses the gulf stream.

[xcool22]

you meaing gfs

[cycloneye]

I fixed it.

[tolakram]

This is GFS fantasy land so keep that in mind.

[Siker]

Picked up by a shortwave trough by 252, moving ENE.

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder if the GFS is overdoing the intensity of 90L which lowers heights too much over the Mid-Atlantic. It's back to showing sub 910mb numbers for a storm in the long range and we all know how that has changed for 99L .

[TheStormExpert]

Strong TS/Weak Hurricane @ 240hrs. just East of Florida.

[xcool22]

GFS Not Make Sense but okay


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[Blown Away]

12z @240... Cat 1 Hurricane stalled @30 miles E of WPB and then starts ENE movement... 90L is a beast... Crazy run...

[LarryWx]

What I get out of the last couple of days of more reliable model runs overall is that especially S and C FL will need to be on guard for potential impact from 99L near the end of August, whether it be low or higher impact.

[NDG]

And of course I can't forget about the crazy CMC:

[tolakram]

In my opinion ...

The thing to keep in mind here for the longer range is that errors in genesis prediction make or break an entire run. If the GFS incorrectly develops the storm early then who knows where the wave ends up if it doesn't develop. If the Euro misses development then a similar kind of error where a feature ends up in a completely different place than where it would be if it developed.

[Bocadude85]

12z @240... Cat 1 Hurricane stalled @30 miles E of WPB and then starts ENE movement... 90L is a beast... Crazy run...

GFS has been very insistent on moving whatever this may become into the northwest Bahamas. Would not have taken much to bring this ashore in SE Florida on this run. Models are going to keep windshield wiping until the time frame gets a little closer.

[pgoss11]

And of course I can't forget about the crazy CMC:

Thank God It's the CMC!

[gatorcane]

Takeaway from these models in long-range is development in or near Bahamas is quite possible. Where it would go, who would be impacted, or how strong it would get is too early to know. Situation still reminds me a lot of how models handled Earl in long-range and as we kept getting closer to that event.

[NDG]

Though I think development near the Bahamas is a good possibility I would like to see the operational Euro come on board, because in the short term it has been the only model that was right showing no development before the Leeward Islands.

[Bocadude85]

Takeaway from these models in long-range is development in or near Bahamas is quite possible. Where it would go, who would be impacted, or how strong it would get is too early to know. Situation still reminds me a lot of how models handled Earl in long-range and as we kept getting closer to that event.

I agree. This is very reminiscent of the way the models handled Earl before locking in on the final outcome.

[gatorcane]

and the 12Z NAVGEM is back to showing development starting around the SE Bahamas area. The Euro is now the only model that is not showing development looking at the 12Z guidance. Of course the Euro is up next for its 12Z run so let's see what it does. I looked at the UKMET, GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM models..

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET 144 hours looks to turn it north near the SE Bahamas with a decrease in forward speed:

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below: