ATL: HERMINE - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#801 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:40 am

12z GFS shows a strengthening TS as it crosses the gulf stream.

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xcool22

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#802 Postby xcool22 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:41 am

you meaing gfs :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#803 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:41 am

I fixed it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#804 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:42 am

This is GFS fantasy land so keep that in mind.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#805 Postby Siker » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:44 am

Picked up by a shortwave trough by 252, moving ENE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#806 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:45 am

I wonder if the GFS is overdoing the intensity of 90L which lowers heights too much over the Mid-Atlantic. It's back to showing sub 910mb numbers for a storm in the long range and we all know how that has changed for 99L :lol: .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#807 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:45 am

Strong TS/Weak Hurricane @ 240hrs. just East of Florida.

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#808 Postby xcool22 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:46 am

GFS Not Make Sense but okay


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#809 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:46 am

12z @240... Cat 1 Hurricane stalled @30 miles E of WPB and then starts ENE movement... 90L is a beast... Crazy run...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#810 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:48 am

What I get out of the last couple of days of more reliable model runs overall is that especially S and C FL will need to be on guard for potential impact from 99L near the end of August, whether it be low or higher impact.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#811 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:49 am

And of course I can't forget about the crazy CMC:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#812 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:51 am

In my opinion ...

The thing to keep in mind here for the longer range is that errors in genesis prediction make or break an entire run. If the GFS incorrectly develops the storm early then who knows where the wave ends up if it doesn't develop. If the Euro misses development then a similar kind of error where a feature ends up in a completely different place than where it would be if it developed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#813 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:56 am

Blown Away wrote:12z @240... Cat 1 Hurricane stalled @30 miles E of WPB and then starts ENE movement... 90L is a beast... Crazy run...


GFS has been very insistent on moving whatever this may become into the northwest Bahamas. Would not have taken much to bring this ashore in SE Florida on this run. Models are going to keep windshield wiping until the time frame gets a little closer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#814 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:56 am

NDG wrote:And of course I can't forget about the crazy CMC:

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Thank God It's the CMC! :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#815 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:58 am

Takeaway from these models in long-range is development in or near Bahamas is quite possible. Where it would go, who would be impacted, or how strong it would get is too early to know. Situation still reminds me a lot of how models handled Earl in long-range and as we kept getting closer to that event.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#816 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:03 pm

Though I think development near the Bahamas is a good possibility I would like to see the operational Euro come on board, because in the short term it has been the only model that was right showing no development before the Leeward Islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#817 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:Takeaway from these models in long-range is development in or near Bahamas is quite possible. Where it would go, who would be impacted, or how strong it would get is too early to know. Situation still reminds me a lot of how models handled Earl in long-range and as we kept getting closer to that event.


I agree. This is very reminiscent of the way the models handled Earl before locking in on the final outcome.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#818 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:12 pm

and the 12Z NAVGEM is back to showing development starting around the SE Bahamas area. The Euro is now the only model that is not showing development looking at the 12Z guidance. Of course the Euro is up next for its 12Z run so let's see what it does. I looked at the UKMET, GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM models..
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#819 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:16 pm

12Z UKMET 144 hours looks to turn it north near the SE Bahamas with a decrease in forward speed:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#820 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:27 pm

12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below:
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