ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Likely a strong developing TS/Cat 1/2 takes @40 hours to move from Andros Island to Grand Bahama... Talk about a rain event...

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below:

Gator, if u look at the last 2-3 frames in the Navgem...does it move WnW or due West??

[blp]

I had posted this earlier last night's Euro shows 99l in the Bahamas but the major difference is that is shows Fiona interacting and then merging with 99l and if the run goes further I think it develops it. It will be interesting how it handles Fiona because if Fiona is out of the way like the other models are showing then the Euro should fully develop 99l. I would argue the Euro shows development to some degree.

Fiona & 99l


Getting closer


Merge

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below:
https://s14.postimg.org/p9z7qpz35/nvg10 ... oplant.gif

Gator, if u look at the last 2-3 frames in the Navgem...does it move WnW or due West??

Close inspection is that it starts to turn this around hour 162 and has due west between hours 174 and 180. Full loop here:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity:

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity

Yes that is true. Lets see what it shows in the Bahamas

[blp]

12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity

Yep and Fiona is further North less influence.

[NDG]

Interesting 12z Euro run so far.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 96 Hours gets tangled a little with Hispaniola... Once it clears will be the key??

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro... 96 Hours gets tangled a little with Hispaniola... Once it clears will be the key??

Yup its almost in the Bahamas. That will be huge this run what it shows

[Blown Away]

Euro... If you click the past 3-4 model runs, there has been slight improvement each time...

[WeatherEmperor]

Slightly stronger vorticity in turks and caicos at 120hrs. Nothing strong but more vorticity than before

[SFLcane]

Looking like one of these quick developing situations in the Bahamas if anything is left. Plenty of fuel but as most know more is needed.

[gatorcane]

The Euro and GFS are now very close as far as 99l if you look at their 120 hour forecasts.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 144 Hours... Stronger than previous runs... Moving WNW into SE Bahamas

[tarheelprogrammer]

Stronger this run for sure. Looks to be closed off at hour 144. What is the ridging situation?

[WeatherEmperor]

144hrs even stronger vorticity in NE Bahamas. Looks close to a TD??

[gatorcane]

Yep and it appears the Euro is tightening the vorticity in the Bahamas:

[Blown Away]

144hrs even stronger vorticity in NE Bahamas. Looks close to a TD??

Closed off IMO..

[blp]

12z Euro... 144 Hours... Stronger than previous runs... Moving WNW into SE Bahamas

Fiona is long gone OTS, that is the major difference IMO.