ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#821 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:35 pm

12z GFS... Likely a strong developing TS/Cat 1/2 takes @40 hours to move from Andros Island to Grand Bahama... Talk about a rain event...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#822 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below:
Image


Gator, if u look at the last 2-3 frames in the Navgem...does it move WnW or due West??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#823 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:37 pm

I had posted this earlier last night's Euro shows 99l in the Bahamas but the major difference is that is shows Fiona interacting and then merging with 99l and if the run goes further I think it develops it. It will be interesting how it handles Fiona because if Fiona is out of the way like the other models are showing then the Euro should fully develop 99l. I would argue the Euro shows development to some degree.

Fiona & 99l
Image

Getting closer
Image

Merge
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#824 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM has a strengthening system and it turning west in the Bahamas around 168. Heading slowly west at hour 180 where the run ends below:
https://s14.postimg.org/p9z7qpz35/nvg10 ... oplant.gif


Gator, if u look at the last 2-3 frames in the Navgem...does it move WnW or due West??


Close inspection is that it starts to turn this around hour 162 and has due west between hours 174 and 180. Full loop here:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#825 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:09 pm

12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#826 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity

Image


Yes that is true. Lets see what it shows in the Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#827 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro through 72 hours with a stronger vorticity


Yep and Fiona is further North less influence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#828 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:13 pm

Interesting 12z Euro run so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#829 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:15 pm

12z Euro... 96 Hours gets tangled a little with Hispaniola... Once it clears will be the key??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#830 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:16 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z Euro... 96 Hours gets tangled a little with Hispaniola... Once it clears will be the key??


Yup its almost in the Bahamas. That will be huge this run what it shows
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#831 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:23 pm

Euro... If you click the past 3-4 model runs, there has been slight improvement each time...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#832 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:23 pm

Slightly stronger vorticity in turks and caicos at 120hrs. Nothing strong but more vorticity than before
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#833 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:24 pm

Looking like one of these quick developing situations in the Bahamas if anything is left. Plenty of fuel but as most know more is needed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#834 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:24 pm

The Euro and GFS are now very close as far as 99l if you look at their 120 hour forecasts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#835 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:29 pm

12z Euro... 144 Hours... Stronger than previous runs... Moving WNW into SE Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#836 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:29 pm

Stronger this run for sure. Looks to be closed off at hour 144. What is the ridging situation?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#837 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:29 pm

144hrs even stronger vorticity in NE Bahamas. Looks close to a TD??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#838 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:30 pm

Yep and it appears the Euro is tightening the vorticity in the Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#839 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:30 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:144hrs even stronger vorticity in NE Bahamas. Looks close to a TD??


Closed off IMO..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#840 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z Euro... 144 Hours... Stronger than previous runs... Moving WNW into SE Bahamas


Fiona is long gone OTS, that is the major difference IMO.
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