ATL: HERMINE - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#841 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:31 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Stronger this run for sure. Looks to be closed off at hour 144. What is the ridging situation?


Ridge to the north sitting over the Carolinas:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#842 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Stronger this run for sure. Looks to be closed off at hour 144. What is the ridging situation?


Ridge to the north:

Image


Shear forecast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#843 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:32 pm

12z Euro at 144hr, zoomed in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#844 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:36 pm

12z Euro... 168 Hours... ... Moving NW through N Bahamas as strong TS...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#845 Postby jason1912 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:37 pm

Interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#846 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:37 pm

Yep so now every model shows development in the Bahamas:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#847 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:38 pm

surprised it even gets that far north with that huge ridge building over the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#848 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:39 pm

Much faster than 12z GFS... Euro a couple days earlier...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#849 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:40 pm

12z Euro 168 hr zoomed in

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#850 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:42 pm

12z Euro... 192 Hours... Landfall @ Daytona feeling the ridge... Maybe a cane...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#851 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:43 pm

Landfall at hour 192 between Central and North Florida. Hmmm. ECMWF keeps getting stronger not a good sign this far out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#852 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:44 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z Euro... 192 Hours... Landfall @ Daytona feeling the ridge... Maybe a cane...


I agree looks like a Cane to me too. Big change in the Euro now showing development. Needs to be watched for sure now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#853 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:44 pm

12z Euro 192hr zoomed in

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#854 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:44 pm

Interesting run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#855 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#856 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:44 pm

Landfall near Daytona Beach, FL in 192hrs. as a moderate TS on 12z Euro.

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#857 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:46 pm

The Euro west turn is further north than the GFS and NAVGEM perhaps since the Euro brings it to the Bahamas faster.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#858 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:46 pm

Hispaniola could be a big factor because it slowed 99L down a bit...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#859 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:47 pm

The Euro makes it go due West from 168 hrs to 192 hours indicating a strong ridge to the north. Very interesting for sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#860 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:48 pm

GFS has been decent not at predicting exactly what would happen but foretelling favorable conditions. I guess now the question is, what exactly will happen?

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