Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and any development should be slow to occur due to
its large size and proximity to dry air. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond a couple
of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next
week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016


Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N35W to a
1009 mb low near 11N35W to 16N33W, moving W at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave
environment continue to limit the convection to scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 05N-16N between 30W and 40W. Any
development of this system during the next couple of days should
be slow to occur due to its proximity to dry air. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after
that time, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and
any development during the next couple of days should be slow to
occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond
a couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
209 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level ridge will continues to weaken over the
region during the weekend. A dry air mass will moves over the
region through at least Monday. A surface high pressure ridge
will lift farther north of the region through Sunday to maintain
light to moderate easterly trade winds across the region. A broad
area of low pressure and associated tropical wave, located midway
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, is expected to reach the
regional waters by Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather conditions prevailed across the islands today, with
mostly sunny skies, and warm and hot temperatures. This weather
pattern was observed, not only because of the influence of a Mid
to Upper level ridge, but also because of the strong cap inversion
combined with low level moisture. Although this conditions will
continues through the rest of the weekend, afternoon convection
across the interior and western sections of PR still possible each
afternoon.

Satellite and Model guidance continue to suggest the presence of
dry air with Saharan Dust Particles over Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands at least until Monday. However, model guidance are
suggesting the arrival of surges of tropical moisture across the
region between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday. As a result,
intensity and areal coverage of afternoon convection may increase
somewhat Sun-Tue as the ridge aloft weakens and the available
moisture increase.

In addition, model guidance are showing a better agreement about
the evolution of the broad area of low pressure and associated
tropical wave, now located midway between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. This system is being followed by the National Hurricane
Center and for additional information please refer to the Tropical
Weather Outlook and the National Hurricane Center products.
However the model guidance suggest a significant increase in the
local available moisture and instability with this approaching
wave by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through the forecast
cycle. TSRA development in and around JMZ with MVFR conds possible
through 20/22z. Winds will continue easterly at around 15 knots...
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas below 5 feet and winds below
17 knots with fairly tranquil seas for the rest of the weekend.
For now precautionary statements and small craft advisories are
not expected through at least Tuesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 89 78 89 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and
any development of this system during the next couple of days should
be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
531 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS... Weak ridge aloft will hold across the forecast area
at least until Tuesday. Surface ridge across the West Atlantic
and an induced trough northeast of the area will maintain a light
east to northeast wind flow across the region through Monday.
Recent satellite imagery showed a surge of moisture accompanying
the surface trough moving west southwest with the prevailing
northeast wind flow.

Farther east of the islands...A broad area of low pressure and
associated tropical wave was located across the tropical atlantic
with axis near 40W. This feature will continue westward and is expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles by late Tuesday or Wednesday based on
the present movement and model guidance. Ahead and accompanying this
wave is a fairly large area of Saharan air and suspended dust particulates
with very disorganized convection at this time. Based on latest info
from the National Hurricane Center any development of this system during
the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its large size
and proximity to the dry air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect a few quick passing showers mainly across the coastal waters
during the early morning hours. The previously mentioned surge of
moisture accompanying the induced surface trough will move across
the region later today and into the evening hours. As a result expect
an increase in low level moisture across the islands. This moisture
advection should allow a better chance for increased afternoon cloudiness
and overnight convection across the regional waters and portions of
the islands. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms should
be focused mainly over parts of the east and central interior and
west sections of Puerto Rico.

Improving conditions expected by late Monday and Tuesday, as drier
air and a more stable airmass will spread across the region in
advance of the tropical wave now forecast to enter the eastern
Caribbean late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The wave is then expected
to bring a significant increase in tropical moisture and instability
to the region as is moves across the forecast area. Model guidance
suggests increasing PWAT values to increase to near 2.5 inches by early
Thursday. Should this pattern continue to unfold, expect increased
instability and good moisture convergence across the forecast
area by mid week and during the latter part of the work week. The
increasing moisture advection and chance for enhanced showers and
thunderstorms across the islands will also increase potential for
good wetting rains and localized flooding situations. Stay tuned
as we will continue to closely monitor this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area. However, vicinity SHRA are expected across the Leeward and
USVI taf sites thru at least 21/14Z. after 21/15, moisture will
increase over PR producing SHRA over interior and west portions.
SHRA/TSRA with mountain obscuration are expected after 21/17Z across
TJMZ/TJBQ. Winds will become mostly from the east increasing to
around 15 knots with sea breeze variations after 21/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas generally expected to be between 2-4 feet today
and winds will be between 10-15 knots for the next few days. An
increase in Winds and Seas is expected during the latter part of
the workweek as a tropical wave is forecast to move across the
regional waters. By then precautionary statements or small craft
advisories may be required for some areas. Please refer to the
latest coastal waters forecast issued by WFO San Juan PR for any
additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 78 / 20 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 78 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers a few thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
development during the next few days, and any development should be
slow to occur. This system is expected to move westward and then
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. The
proximity of this system to dry air is expected to inhibit
significant development during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to be near Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will continue to prevail across the
forecast area through midweek. Tropical wave about 1100 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles will continue to move westward to
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that this feature
has a formation chance of 10 percent during the next 48 hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A seasonable weather pattern will prevail across
the forecast area through midweek under ridge aloft, gentle to
moderate easterly winds and precipitable water near normal values.
Therefore continue to expect a few passing showers across windward
areas in the morning and evening hours with locally induced
afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day over and west of
the Cordillera Central.

By midweek, weather conditions are expected to become wetter as
a tropical wave moves across the eastern Caribbean. The National
Hurricane Center indicated that this feature has a formation
chance of 10 percent during the next 48 hours and 40 percent
during the next 5 days. Regardless development, expect increased
instability and moisture convergence across the forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon and during the latter part of the workweek.
The increasing moisture advection and chance for enhanced showers
and thunderstorms across the islands will also increase potential
for good wetting rains Wed-Thu. Stay tuned as WFO SJU and NHC
will continue to closely monitor this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...Incrg moisture over PR/USVI will bring SHRA/TSRA over
the interior and to the South of the Cordillera Central aft
21/18z. Mtn obscurations and sea breeze variations expected this
afternoon. SCT-BKN cig btwn FL030-FL050 expected at TJMZ/TJPS til
21/23z. Northeast winds around 15 kt and gusty in/near SHRA/TSRA
then winds will shift from the east btwn 5 and 10 kts aft 21/23z.

&&

.MARINE...A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue
to prevail across the regional waters through midweek. Winds are
expected to gradually increase once again Wednesday and into
Thursday...as a tropical wave moves across the northeast
Caribbean.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 78 89 / 40 40 10 20
STT 80 90 78 90 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing limited and disorganized shower activity. Dry air near
this system is expected to inhibit significant development during
the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
946 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms affected most of the southern
half of Puerto Rico in the afternoon as well as several sectors
across eastern PR. Although most of the rainfall totals were
generally less than a tenth of an inch, some areas received over
a half an inch of rain with isolated areas across SW-PR receiving
as much as an inch and a half of rain. A few brief showers are now
affecting portions of North and East PR and are expected to
continue overnight.

Latest guidance continues to suggest relatively dry air over the
local area through Wednesday with mainly locally induced showers
due to local effects and diurnal heating. The increase in moisture
is expected for Wednesday night into Thursday as a tropical wave
moves in, increasing the chances of significant showers and
thunderstorms over the local islands. Some moisture lingers into
Friday but slightly drier air moves in on Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...Moisture carried over PR/USVI from the NE will result in
SHRA over ern and nrn PR til 22/12Z. Aft 22/15z SHRA/TSRA over the
interior and nwrn PR. Expect TJMZ/TJBQ MVFR cigs til 22/23Z. Mtn
obscurations and sea breeze variations expected Monday afternoon.
Streamers from El Yunque will bring VCSH to TJSJ after 22/15Z.
Across the Leeward Islands, brief MVFR in VCSH. Wind will shift to E-
ESE 5-15 kts aft 22/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas continue to remain generally between 2 and 4 feet
with winds generally between 10 and 15 knots. There is a low risk
of rip currents tonight. Seas expected to increase by Wednesday
afternoon and night.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
423 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper ridge will continue to prevail across the
region through Tuesday. Upper ridge will then flatten Wednesday
and Thursday as a tropical wave about 900 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles moves west northwestward across the northeastern
Caribbean. The wave is expected to bring an increase in showers
and thunderstorms across the local islands Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar observations overnight and early this morning
depicted isolated to scattered showers moving west southwestward
from the Atlantic waters across eastern and northern sections of
Puerto Rico as well as across Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. This activity was associated with an area of low level
moisture embedded in the east northeast trades. Isolated to
scattered showers will continue to affect these sections until
mid morning hours. The local wind flow are expected to become more
from the east to east-southeast mid morning today. This moisture
in combination with daytime heating and local effects will produce
showers and thunderstorms initially along Cordillera Central and
then across western and interior sections of Puerto Rico this
afternoon. As this area of low level moisture moves westward, a
relatively stable and drier air will move across the region from
the east in association with the subsidence ahead of the tropical
wave to the east of the lesser antilles.

The tropical wave around 900 miles to the east of the Lesser
Antilles is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph. At this translation speed the wave will reach the
Eastern Caribbean Wednesday morning and Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands late Wednesday and Thursday and will produce an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the local
islands. Lingering moisture will continue across the region until
at least Friday. Accordingly to the National Hurricane Center
(NHC), this wave has a tropical cyclone formation potential of 10
percent during the next 48 hours.

&&

.AVIATION...Moisture carried over PR/USVI from the NE will result in
SHRA over ern and nrn PR til 22/14Z. Aft 22/15z SHRA/TSRA over
the interior and nwrn PR. Expect TJMZ/TJBQ MVFR cigs til 22/23Z.
Mtn obscurations and sea breeze variations expected Monday
afternoon. Streamers from El Yunque will bring VCSH to TJSJ after
22/15Z. Across the Leeward Islands, brief MVFR in VCSH. Wind will
shift to E-ESE 5-15 kts aft 22/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas continue to remain generally between 2 and 4 feet
with winds generally between 10 and 15 knots. There is a low risk
of rip currents today. Seas expected to increase by Wednesday
afternoon and night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 90 79 90 79 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
242 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will move over the region tonight
into Tuesday. This will lead to fair weather pattern across the
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands ahead of the tropical
wave. The next weather maker is a tropical wave located about 750
miles east of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this strong wave will affect the
islands between Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture will gradually
diminish through Friday, with drier than normal conditions expected
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers were observed across most of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands today due to the passage of a weak trough.
Average rainfall accumulations with this activity were around
0.5-1.0 inches of rain so far this afternoon. Isolated areas
received up to 2 inches of rain. Weather conditions will likely
improve tonight into Tuesday as drier and stable air mass ahead of
the tropical wave will move over the region. As a result...limited
shower activity is expected on Tuesday...except over the Western
Interior and West sections of Puerto Rico where heavy rainfall is
possible due to afternoon convection.

The strong tropical wave near 49 West is forecast to move westward
over next few days...reaching the local region by Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
likely affect the islands. Flooding in low lying areas and small
streams are also likely with this wave. Moisture associated the
wave will gradually diminish through Friday. Then...fair weather
conditions expected during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to diminish by sunset across NW PR,
impacting mainly TJMZ/TJBQ with MVFR conds. VFR conds expected to
prevail across the rest of the flying area thru the forecast period.
Winds blo FL050 will continue ESE at 10-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will deteriorate somewhat across the
regional waters as the tropical wave approaches from the east.
Seas of 2-4 feet will build to 4-6 feet late Wednesday into
Thursday...especially across the Atlantic Waters. Seas will
return to normal of 3-5 feet Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 10 20 20 60
STT 79 90 79 88 / 20 20 30 60

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday, if necessary.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
358 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will remain over the region today,
maintaining a relatively fair weather pattern across the forecast
area. The ridge is expected to erode rapidly tonight and
Wednesday as a tropical wave located about 400 miles east-
southeast of the Lesser Antilles, moves close to the region.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave will affect
the islands Wednesday and Thursday. Lingering Moisture will remain
across the region on Friday, with drier than normal conditions
expected over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar observations overnight and early this morning
depicted isolated to scattered showers moving westward mostly
across the surrounding coastal waters, with few of them affecting
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Eastern sections of Puerto Rico.
Showers are expected to diminish today as drier and stable air
ahead of a tropical wave moves over the region. However, as usual,
the limited available moisture will combine with daytime heating
to produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms over Western and
interior sections of Puerto Rico.

The tropical wave around 400 miles to the east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph. At this translation speed the wave will reach the
Eastern Caribbean Wednesday morning and Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
likely affect the islands. Flooding in low lying areas and small
streams are also likely with this wave. Accordingly to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC), this wave has a tropical cyclone
formation potential of 60 percent through the next 48 hours.
Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...Few passing -SHRA/SHRA ovr coastal waters an en route
btw PR and Nrn Leeward islands. SCT ocnl BKN cld lyrs FL025...
FL050...w/brief VCSH til 23/14z across the USVI terminals, TJSJ, and
also TNCM and TKPK. Otherwise VFR conds expected through 23/15Z.
Diurnally induced SCT SHRA/ Isold TSRA psbl across central and
western PR after 23/17Z with psbl VCSH/VCTS mainly at TJMZ and N of
TJPS til 23/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will deteriorate somewhat across the
regional waters as the tropical wave approaches from the east.
Seas of 2-4 feet will build to 4-6 feet late Wednesday into
Thursday...especially across the Atlantic Waters. Seas will
return to normal of 3-5 feet Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 60 50
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 50 60 60

&&

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for
development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern
Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas
regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products
issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Gustywind]

99L

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016




A tropical wave is located about 348 nm east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands extending from 11N to 21N with axis near 55W. The
wave is associated with a 1009 mb low located near 16N55W and has
been moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Moisture
has increased in the wave environment, which along with favorable
deep layer wind shear and upper level diffluence support heavy showers
and isolated tstms from 13N to 20N between 53W and 58W. Conditions
are marginally conducive for some gradual development during the
next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development late this week when the system is
expected to move near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the
southeastern and central Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/768067080469872640

[Gustywind]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/768067080469872640

Interresting Luis , thanks for posting that...we all appreciate.
For the moment no yellow alert expected by Meteo-France for Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
249 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A strong tropical wave located about 400 miles east
of the U.S. Virgin Islands will continue to move west-northwest at
around 15-20 MPH. As a result...Showers and thunderstorms associated
with this strong wave will affect the local islands on Wednesday.
Residual moisture associated with the trailing edge of the tropical
wave will likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon. Moisture will gradually diminish on Friday,
with drier than normal conditions expected during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery indicate that the strong tropical
several hundred miles east of the forecast area has elongated
since this morning. This result in a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms near the wave axis. The tropical wave is forecast to
reach the local area early Wednesday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will be more frequent as the day progresses.
As a result... the potential of flash flooding remains high across
most of the islands...therefore a Flash Flood Watch is in effect
for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands between early
Wednesday morning and late Wednesday night. Although...most of the
local islands will receive heavy rains...the highest rainfall
accumulations will likely occur over the U.S. Virgin Islands and
the eastern half of Puerto Rico. Additional impacts associated
with this strong tropical wave are strong gusty winds up to 30-40
MPH with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms, hazardous marine
conditions and high risk of rip currents.

Trailing moisture associated with the tropical wave will bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Moisture
will gradually diminish on Friday. Then...fair weather conditions
expected during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Few passing -SHRA/SHRA ovr coastal waters an en route
btw PR and Nrn Leeward islands. SCT ocnl BKN cld lyrs FL025...
FL050...w/brief VCSH til 23/14z across the USVI terminals, TJSJ, and
also TNCM and TKPK. Otherwise VFR conds expected through 23/15Z.
Diurnally induced SCT SHRA/ Isold TSRA psbl across central and
western PR after 23/17Z with psbl VCSH/VCTS mainly at TJMZ and N of
TJPS til 23/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will deteriorate overnight as a
strong tropical wave moves across the northeast Caribbean. Seas
will increase 5 to 7 feet with occasionally seas 8 to 9 feet.
Lightning and Gusty winds up to 30 knots will be the main hazard
for mariners...especially across the offshore Atlc waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 86 78 89 / 80 80 70 70
STT 79 86 78 87 / 80 80 70 70