ATL: HERMINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15507
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1361 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:23 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro now caving to the GFS?


Not at all, it is being persistent with a stronger ridge than what the 12z GFS shows, through 96 hrs.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1362 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:23 pm

Not sure what you guys are looking at but vorticity is somewhat better defined this run vs 00z out to 120hrs.
0 likes   
Top
hurrtracker79
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:32 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1363 Postby hurrtracker79 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:24 pm

Think this will end up passing through S FL and then into the Gulf. With that stout ridge, the Gulf is WIDE open IMO
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23702
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1364 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:24 pm

Euro looks to start developing in the South-Central Bahamas and slowing the movement towards the WNW
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1365 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:24 pm

Euro has 99L in the central Bahamas 5 days from now with a big ridge to the north. If 99L finds the right conditions it is poised in a perfect position to strike South Florida.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1366 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:24 pm

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro now caving to the GFS?


Not at all, it is being persistent with a stronger ridge than what the 12z GFS shows, through 96 hrs.

I meant intensity wise.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15507
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1367 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:25 pm

12z Euro even a stronger ridge in its 120 hr forecast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10252
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1368 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:26 pm

90L a few degrees farther E on this run at 120 hours...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15507
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1369 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:26 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro now caving to the GFS?


Not at all, it is being persistent with a stronger ridge than what the 12z GFS shows, through 96 hrs.

I meant intensity wise.


Through 120 hr is about the same as last night's run, intensity wise.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23702
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1370 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:27 pm

12Z Euro 120 hours heading WNW:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15507
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1371 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:90L a few degrees farther E on this run at 120 hours...


Another player in 90L's intensity, IMO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1372 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 120 hours heading WNW:

Image


If this slows down to a crawl and finds the right conditions in that location with a ridge over head...Watch out!!!
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23702
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1373 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm

144 hours and getting stronger heading WNW in the Central Bahamas
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1374 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm

Oh boy...144 hours and it's starting to blossom.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10252
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1375 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm

12z Euro... 144 Hours... Moving WNW through Central Bahamas... Might be moderate TS strength
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1376 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm

Definitely starting to intensify at 132hrs...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1377 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:29 pm

Stronger at hour 144
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15507
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1378 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:30 pm

Per Euro's h50 forecast 99L has no other way but to go WNW into FL, IMO.
Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23702
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1379 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:30 pm

144 hours:
Image
0 likes   
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2566
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1380 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:30 pm

144 hours stronger over Andros Island.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 40 guests