ATL: HERMINE - Models

[NDG]

It looks like the 18z run of the GFS is going back to a similar run to the earlier 06z run, stronger ridging across the Carolinas.

[Hammy]

I have to point out one thing on the Euro's run, it's eerily similar to Elena, both in timing and track (though the track being 100 or so miles north), and I recall several people pointing out that the wave had a similar appearance as well days before.

[AtlanticWind]

Same or weaker on this run

[Dean4Storms]

Here's the problem..... Dry air north and south of it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pwata&runtime=2016082218&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=505

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Watching this bad boy closely, supposed to be in Charleston for Labor Day weekend for a Bachelor Party.

[Alyono]

MU still has nothing but a sheared Piece of cow dung

[Alyono]

sp, we have anywhere from a cat 4 in the Gulf to no disturbance worth monitoring

[centuryv58]

MU still has nothing but a sheared Piece of cow dung

SO tell us how you really feel.

[Hammy]

Here's the problem..... Dry air north and south of it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pwata&runtime=2016082218&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=505

It seems to boil down even further to Fiona and 99L competing for moisture, because the Euro (which does develop this now) doesn't have Fiona's remnants around.

[LarryWx]

It looks like the 18z run of the GFS is going back to a similar run to the earlier 06z run, stronger ridging across the Carolinas.

Yep, and notice that the Fiona remnants are tracking like the 6Z run and not the 12Z run, which delayed them coming ashore FL a day.

[WeatherEmperor]

MU still has nothing but a sheared Piece of cow dung

Who is gonna bust Euro or Gfs?

[Nimbus]

Elena would be better than Hugo, the track took it over the islands which kept the intensity in check.

[gatorcane]

This time the GFS hits it with shear from a ULL that pinches off from the northeast. In the 12Z it was a ULL from the northwest.

[stormlover2013]

U can say ukmet, Cmc, euro or gfs...one of them will bust but it's really not a bust until we have a center or a llc we don't have anything right now

[Bocadude85]

Well either the Euro and UKMET are going to bust or the GFS will..will be interesting to see which models are right.

[Alyono]

think we can stop posting the remainder of this MU run

[xcool22]

Well either the Euro and UKMET are going to bust or the GFS will..will be interesting to see which models are right.

l agree We'll Soon Find Out

[shortwave]

sp, we have anywhere from a cat 4 in the Gulf to no disturbance worth monitoring

What is your 7 day prediction for this disturbance?

[stormlover2013]

174 hours out and the ridge looks strong

[wflamholtz]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pkjm1eWoSBs

A very informative video by Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits