ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

if not mistaking Levi say their no real low with this wave maybe weak low

[floridasun78]

i feel models over doing this wave their over doing their done bad with 99l

[WeatherEmperor]

This should not be surprising. Most models including the Euro show very little until it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days. Its not expected to much of anything until that point.

[Bocadude85]

Still looking good on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[Javlin]

Still looking good on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

MIMIC showing a run N of the Islands?looking at the water pattern?

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised if this takes a similar path to Andrew in 1992 but obviously weaker

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[wxman57]

This should not be surprising. Most models including the Euro show very little until it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days. Its not expected to much of anything until that point.

That is true. Don't expect much of an increase in organization for another 3-4 days, at least.

[Bocadude85]

This should not be surprising. Most models including the Euro show very little until it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days. Its not expected to much of anything until that point.

That is true. Don't expect much of an increase in organization for another 3-4 days, at least.

Are you still thinking a recurve once in the Bahamas?

[wxman57]

This should not be surprising. Most models including the Euro show very little until it reaches the Bahamas in 3-4 days. Its not expected to much of anything until that point.

That is true. Don't expect much of an increase in organization for another 3-4 days, at least.

Are you still thinking a recurve once in the Bahamas?

Well, I'm not so sure about the recurve. That ridge may be too strong. I don't expect much development east of Florida if it does cross the peninsula, though. Maybe a TS. If it gets in the Gulf it may strengthen quickly.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like convection is going up where the highest surface vorticity is and seems like D-MAX is going to do wonders for this to help it organize

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 99L's large size has made it more resilient to an environment that would have killed a cyclone like last year's Danny 10 times over. The air is dry, but shear is low to moderate, so there is no reason to expect 99L will just dissipate as it continues west-northwest, perhaps passing north of the Caribbean Sea. In the longer range, I agree with a majority of modelling that 99L will develop into a tropical cyclone. We can deal with intensity later, but guidance has come into good agreement that ridging is too dominant and anything that forms will head west into the Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS has been performing awfully these past few days, and its forecasts for 99L seem just as awful. We'll see though. I don't ever 100% discount any solution.

[USTropics]

This will be the third straight night where we've seen convection start to pulse around this time. This is a typical pattern of large, broad circulations in less then ideal conditions.

[Bocadude85]

That is true. Don't expect much of an increase in organization for another 3-4 days, at least.

Are you still thinking a recurve once in the Bahamas?

Well, I'm not so sure about the recurve. That ridge may be too strong. I don't expect much development east of Florida if it does cross the peninsula, though. Maybe a TS. If it gets in the Gulf it may strengthen quickly.

Thanks 57. We can deal with a weak TS down here in SFla with no problems.

[AdamFirst]

Keeping a close eye on this one. I'm currently on vacation in Pennsylvania with my folks - I'm staying up here until after Labor Day but my folks are scheduled to fly back on Sunday to Fort Lauderdale.

[floridasun78]

Are you still thinking a recurve once in the Bahamas?

Well, I'm not so sure about the recurve. That ridge may be too strong. I don't expect much development east of Florida if it does cross the peninsula, though. Maybe a TS. If it gets in the Gulf it may strengthen quickly.

Thanks 57. We can deal with a weak TS down here in SFla with no problems.

i hope that too only td or weak ts not hurr

[SFLcane]

Are you still thinking a recurve once in the Bahamas?

Well, I'm not so sure about the recurve. That ridge may be too strong. I don't expect much development east of Florida if it does cross the peninsula, though. Maybe a TS. If it gets in the Gulf it may strengthen quickly.

Thanks 57. We can deal with a weak TS down here in SFla with no problems.

Personally Id think for us in SFL it can go either way with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas A strengthening TS or minimal hurricane.

[Hurricaneman]

What happened earlier I think is with the shear the dry air came back into the system but seems to be mixing that out and with low shear may maintain and may even reform a circulation from the same area that had a previous circulation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

if fionas remnants or it stays as a TD into florida, and 99L comes on as a weak TS wouldnt there be the possibility of intermingling energy at all and helping develop the system?

[beoumont]

Someone mentioned Elena 1985 as a possible analogy to the current 99l invest. Below is 1st part of NHC preliminary report:

[Aric Dunn]

Now that is the type of convective action we need. Its a sign of much stronger low level inflow and in general environment becoming more conducive. recon may find something tomorrow if this can maintain overnight.