ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Well the 00z once again shows nothing through 168hrs. This is looking more and more like a major win.....or major bust. I have never seen this before
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
99L has a better defined vorticity in the Bahamas in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
00z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2016 48 19.5N 65.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.08.2016 60 21.5N 68.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 71.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.08.2016 84 24.4N 72.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.8N 73.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.08.2016 108 27.3N 74.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 28.08.2016 120 28.6N 77.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2016 132 29.5N 80.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 29.08.2016 144 30.0N 84.6W 999 32
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2016 48 19.5N 65.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.08.2016 60 21.5N 68.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 71.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.08.2016 84 24.4N 72.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.8N 73.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.08.2016 108 27.3N 74.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 28.08.2016 120 28.6N 77.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2016 132 29.5N 80.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 29.08.2016 144 30.0N 84.6W 999 32
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The GFS seems to be as one other poster said slowly trending towards the other models
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Well the 00z once again shows nothing through 168hrs. This is looking more and more like a major win.....or major bust. I have never seen this before
Debby 2012. Euro showed a Texas landfall, GFS showed it going to Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
186 hours, stalled in the Bahamas with minimal development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
All I know with that high pressure holding steady if something develops sw la wouldn't be out of the woods!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
ULL leaving the scene toward NE should allow strengthening now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Siker wrote:00z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2016 48 19.5N 65.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.08.2016 60 21.5N 68.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 71.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.08.2016 84 24.4N 72.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.8N 73.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.08.2016 108 27.3N 74.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 28.08.2016 120 28.6N 77.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2016 132 29.5N 80.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 29.08.2016 144 30.0N 84.6W 999 32
That's a much further north landfall in Florida...also UKMET develops this sooner
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Looks as though the GFS doesn't know what to do with 99L so we'll see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Starting to strengthen now 198.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
it looks like the GFS has 99L heading NNE at hr 198 because of a weakness caused by Gaston
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
At that time it starts to get stronger, where is it located related to S. FLA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
As it's getting stronger around our 228 the ridge begin breaking down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Makes no sense what it does with 99L. The ridge is strong enough that you can clearly track the remnants of Fiona move west and then wsw through central Florida, then due west across the northern gulf into the upper TX coast. All the while just south of there 99L is stalled out for days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The issue is the ULL that it develops and keeps the High from steerimg 99l
Last edited by blp on Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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