ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1661 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:26 pm

Well the 00z once again shows nothing through 168hrs. This is looking more and more like a major win.....or major bust. I have never seen this before
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1662 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:26 pm

99L has a better defined vorticity in the Bahamas in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1663 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:27 pm

00z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2016 48 19.5N 65.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.08.2016 60 21.5N 68.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 71.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.08.2016 84 24.4N 72.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.8N 73.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.08.2016 108 27.3N 74.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 28.08.2016 120 28.6N 77.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2016 132 29.5N 80.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 29.08.2016 144 30.0N 84.6W 999 32
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1664 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:28 pm

The GFS seems to be as one other poster said slowly trending towards the other models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1665 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:29 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Well the 00z once again shows nothing through 168hrs. This is looking more and more like a major win.....or major bust. I have never seen this before

Debby 2012. Euro showed a Texas landfall, GFS showed it going to Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1666 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:30 pm

186 hours, stalled in the Bahamas with minimal development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1667 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:31 pm

All I know with that high pressure holding steady if something develops sw la wouldn't be out of the woods!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1668 Postby blp » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:31 pm

ULL leaving the scene toward NE should allow strengthening now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1669 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:31 pm

Siker wrote:00z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 18.5N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2016 48 19.5N 65.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.08.2016 60 21.5N 68.8W 1008 34
0000UTC 26.08.2016 72 23.1N 71.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.08.2016 84 24.4N 72.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.08.2016 96 25.8N 73.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.08.2016 108 27.3N 74.7W 1006 33
0000UTC 28.08.2016 120 28.6N 77.6W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2016 132 29.5N 80.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 29.08.2016 144 30.0N 84.6W 999 32


That's a much further north landfall in Florida...also UKMET develops this sooner
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1670 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:32 pm

Looks as though the GFS doesn't know what to do with 99L so we'll see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1671 Postby blp » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:34 pm

Starting to strengthen now 198.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1672 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:35 pm

it looks like the GFS has 99L heading NNE at hr 198 because of a weakness caused by Gaston
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1673 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:38 pm

Compared to the previous run:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1674 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:38 pm

At that time it starts to get stronger, where is it located related to S. FLA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1675 Postby hurrtracker79 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:40 pm

As it's getting stronger around our 228 the ridge begin breaking down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1676 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:41 pm

Meandering/Stalled out for more than 24 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1677 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:42 pm

Gfs is way slower than the euro!! Gfs seems lost to me
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1678 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:43 pm

Must be summer time...Gfs vs Euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1679 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:44 pm

Makes no sense what it does with 99L. The ridge is strong enough that you can clearly track the remnants of Fiona move west and then wsw through central Florida, then due west across the northern gulf into the upper TX coast. All the while just south of there 99L is stalled out for days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1680 Postby blp » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:44 pm

The issue is the ULL that it develops and keeps the High from steerimg 99l
Last edited by blp on Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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