ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

How the 12Z NAVGEM run ends:

[Aric Dunn]

and then again the HWRF oddly throws the vorticity south to the coast of Cuba. there must be some sort of continuity issue this run. just have to wait for the 18z.pretty sure it will be back.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM with a hurricane passing through the FL Keys

I feel safer already!

NAVGEM had a GFS-esque solution (i.e. no development) until this run which marks another model in the development camp.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF does an about face on development. All in the 3 day range as well. It is very apparent that the models are having a very difficult time with the Fiona/99L interaction.

SFT

[Alyono]

massive shear in HWRF

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF does an about face on development. All in the 3 day range as well. It is very apparent that the models are having a very difficult time with the Fiona/99L interaction.

SFT

like I mentioned I think this run had some continuity issues with the proximity to land as the vorticity kept bouncing back and forth to the coast of HR and Cuba. I bet the next run does not do that and its back to similar runs.

[NDG]

12z HWRF gives credit to the GFS solutions.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, there's no way that this drop development out of nowhere so this probably was just a feedback issue.

[Alyono]

so, the non MU based models, except for Canadian due to it intensifying Fiona too much, have significant development

[tolakram]

12Z Euro initialized



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[RL3AO]

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[tolakram]

Faster development perhaps?

[Aric Dunn]

Euro much better organized in 24hr then last run.

[NDG]

Interesting that the Euro shows it getting better organized over the next 24 hrs.

[tolakram]

[SunnyThoughts]

Is it further South this run at 48 than previous runs?

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 48 Hours... Likely TS moving fast WNW just N of Hispaniola...

[StormHunter72]

Nav gem is garbage has Gaston as a monster.

[jason1912]

Coming in Stronger and further North.

[NDG]

This is where the GFS and Euro show their differences, Fiona's vorticity is much weaker on the Euro than on the GFS.