ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2401 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:45 am

After mixing out dry air through the first 72 hours, HWRF intensifying on approach to extreme South Florida:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2402 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:46 am

AtlanticWind wrote:HWRF has what looks like a soon to be hurricane off miami


Powerful hurricane nearing South Florida indeed..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2403 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2404 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:49 am

ok hwrf back to normal... next hopefully the GFS on next run..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2405 Postby La Breeze » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:51 am

CrazyC83 wrote:We should be glad the CMC is a terrible model, since it stalls Hermine over SE Louisiana for about 2 days. Given what they have been through, that would be beyond comprehension...

Not just SE LA - many are homeless and houses still with water in them here in SouthCentral/SW LA. Please let it go somewhere else or die altogether.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2406 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:52 am

StrongWind wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Main event is in 45 minutes folks!

That's easier for you to say since it's still dinner time there and not way past bedtime.

:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2407 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:53 am

There's the RI:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2408 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:53 am

Wow HWRF making at run at major hurricane status as it landfalls in extreme SFla...this would have came in a little further north had it not taken a random southwest dive @ 108 hours.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2409 Postby ronyan » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:53 am

HWRF has a cat 4 @ 123 hr!
Edit: If I am interpreting the max wind correctly, doesn't look like the pressure is low enough for cat 4.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2410 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:58 am

That random SW jog seems a little unrealistic with an intensifying hurricane.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2411 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:59 am

HWRF Simulated IR. I remember it doing really well with 2014's Arthur, the depiction was fairly accurate.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2412 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:02 am

Euro stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2413 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:03 am

JtSmarts wrote:HWRF Simulated IR. I remember it doing really well with 2014's Arthur, the depiction was fairly accurate.

Image

if these HWRF models pan out in terms of size and strength, future hermine might not even be phased by any possibly shear and just chug on through like a steamroller
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2414 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:03 am

00z Euro is a lot more bullish through 48 hrs:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2415 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:05 am

Slightly south on euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2416 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:07 am

00z Euro @ hr 48:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2417 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:08 am

euro is going to bomb out ... and very similar again to previous runs...
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2418 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:09 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2419 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:10 am

Looks like it'll be a more steady track towards S Florida rather than a NW->W curve.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2420 Postby fci » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:15 am

AutoPenalti wrote:That random SW jog seems a little unrealistic with an intensifying hurricane.

Actually it follows exactly what Katrina did as it was intensifying when it came ashore at the Broward/Dade line.
Katrina wasn't nearly as deep as this model projection is but it took the same SW dive as it came inland.
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