ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768431943650344960

[BucMan2]

Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?

[Steve]

its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...

Pro mets don't agree.

Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/768432310534410241

[stormlover2013]

it could change it no doubt,but the strong ridge is the player here, that ridge has been there all summer and looks right now its going to hold strong

[SFLcane]

No sherdder as suggested by Blake could be very problematic.

[NDG]

HR vis satellite loop continues to show that the circulation is closed & better defined than yesterday, but maybe elongated E to W.

[northjaxpro]

Where is the source of such strong shear? Is there a developing upper.level low in the vicinity?

I believe there is an east/west trough to the north.. someone correct me if I am wrong..

Yes, there is a trough up there north of the Bahamas. This trough should induce northwest motion at least for the next 72 hours or so. 99L could get as far as the NW Bahamas, before the ridge really turns 99L westward or west-southwest across the Florida after that.

[Steve]

Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?

It depends. Sometimes it can help intensify (e.g. A perpendicularly landfalling storm in Texas). Other times it can rip a system apart ala mountains of Hispaniola or Mexico. A lot of times through the smaller islands, centers will want to stay over water and will hug or spin just off a coastline often going around even little jut outs. We are going to have to wait a few days to see what happens as it moves between where it is now and the Bahamas. To your question, there's no easy answer. Land interaction could do little, could influence the track some.

[StormHunter72]

its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...

Pro mets don't agree.

Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.

Oh cool. I am impressed

[Tireman4]

its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...

Pro mets don't agree.

Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.

I second that motion. I have been on this board for 10 years. Aric knows his stuff.

[SoupBone]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/768432310534410241

I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.

[SFLcane]

The center may be on the north side of that convection, up around 17.7-17.8N.

57 still expecting a hurricane in SFL?

It sure could be a hurricane before S. Florida.

[NDG]

This is where I see the LLC. IMO.
Moderate to strong shear to its north, it will have a tough time north of P.R. & Hispaniola until the shear subsides.

[JaxGator]

At first glance, it might appear that Hispaniola is in the way (and it and PR are close) but as latest readings indicate, it is gaining latitude and (per NHC as source in the 8am outlook) has slowed down to 15mph.

[centuryv58]

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/768432310534410241

I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.

I don't think the NHC guy Blake thinks that will be an issue though.

[Nederlander]

I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.

It's going to have to track almost due west at this point for Hispaniola to be an issue imo.

[SoupBone]

Are any models hinting at all about a slowdown? I know a few had it actually moving faster, but if it were to significantly slow down, are there any indications that the ridge could degrade allowing for a small window of opportunity to head north? I'm not suggesting out to sea at all, but a more northern run toward the panhandle or Jacksonville.

[SoupBone]

I don't think the NHC guy Blake thinks that will be an issue though.

A battle of the mets for sure.

[SouthFLTropics]

Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?

It depends. Sometimes it can help intensify (e.g. A perpendicularly landfalling storm in Texas). Other times it can rip a system apart ala mountains of Hispaniola or Mexico. A lot of times through the smaller islands, centers will want to stay over water and will hug or spin just off a coastline often going around even little jut outs. We are going to have to wait a few days to see what happens as it moves between where it is now and the Bahamas. To your question, there's no easy answer. Land interaction could do little, could influence the track some.

If you will recall, Ivan did exactly this dance around an island in 2004 when it went around Jamaica.