ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1201 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:02 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1202 Postby BucMan2 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:07 am

Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1203 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:08 am

StormHunter72 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...
Pro mets don't agree.


Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1204 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:08 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1205 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:09 am

it could change it no doubt,but the strong ridge is the player here, that ridge has been there all summer and looks right now its going to hold strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1206 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:10 am

No sherdder as suggested by Blake could be very problematic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1207 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:11 am

HR vis satellite loop continues to show that the circulation is closed & better defined than yesterday, but maybe elongated E to W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1208 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:11 am

Nederlander wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Where is the source of such strong shear? Is there a developing upper.level low in the vicinity?


I believe there is an east/west trough to the north.. someone correct me if I am wrong..


Yes, there is a trough up there north of the Bahamas. This trough should induce northwest motion at least for the next 72 hours or so. 99L could get as far as the NW Bahamas, before the ridge really turns 99L westward or west-southwest across the Florida after that.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1209 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:13 am

BucMan2 wrote:Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?


It depends. Sometimes it can help intensify (e.g. A perpendicularly landfalling storm in Texas). Other times it can rip a system apart ala mountains of Hispaniola or Mexico. A lot of times through the smaller islands, centers will want to stay over water and will hug or spin just off a coastline often going around even little jut outs. We are going to have to wait a few days to see what happens as it moves between where it is now and the Bahamas. To your question, there's no easy answer. Land interaction could do little, could influence the track some.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1210 Postby StormHunter72 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:14 am

Steve wrote:
StormHunter72 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...
Pro mets don't agree.


Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.
Oh cool. I am impressed :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1211 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:14 am

Steve wrote:
StormHunter72 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its been a TC since around 11pm last night est. was very evident. now we are going to have land interaction and the center is likely to jump around today...
Pro mets don't agree.


Aric is one of the top "layman" forecasters. I didn't even pass physics 101, and he's a doctor of it. Though we don't agree 100% of the time, he usually knows what he's talking about.

Looking to blow out this morning to the store to get some general provisions. We are out of bottled water, beer and red bulls, and we need some nonperishables. If I can knock that out today, I can sit back and crack out to S2K for a few days only having to gas up a couple of cars maybe Saturday morning in case things hit the fan next week.


I second that motion. I have been on this board for 10 years. Aric knows his stuff.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1212 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:16 am




I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1213 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:17 am

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The center may be on the north side of that convection, up around 17.7-17.8N.


57 still expecting a hurricane in SFL?


It sure could be a hurricane before S. Florida.


:eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1214 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:17 am

This is where I see the LLC. IMO.
Moderate to strong shear to its north, it will have a tough time north of P.R. & Hispaniola until the shear subsides.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1215 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:17 am

At first glance, it might appear that Hispaniola is in the way (and it and PR are close) but as latest readings indicate, it is gaining latitude and (per NHC as source in the 8am outlook) has slowed down to 15mph.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1216 Postby centuryv58 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:18 am

SoupBone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/768432310534410241



I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.


I don't think the NHC guy Blake thinks that will be an issue though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1217 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:20 am

SoupBone wrote:

I see what Matt Lanza is saying. It's currently not far enough north and away from Hispaniola to completely write off that possibility of it affecting its future track/intensity. Today will be a good one to watch if you're glued to your screen.


It's going to have to track almost due west at this point for Hispaniola to be an issue imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1218 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:20 am

Are any models hinting at all about a slowdown? I know a few had it actually moving faster, but if it were to significantly slow down, are there any indications that the ridge could degrade allowing for a small window of opportunity to head north? I'm not suggesting out to sea at all, but a more northern run toward the panhandle or Jacksonville.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1219 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:21 am

centuryv58 wrote:
I don't think the NHC guy Blake thinks that will be an issue though.


A battle of the mets for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1220 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 24, 2016 8:23 am

Steve wrote:
BucMan2 wrote:Question: How significantly can land interaction change the center location or cause center reformation and
what effects if any could that have on the eventual track?


It depends. Sometimes it can help intensify (e.g. A perpendicularly landfalling storm in Texas). Other times it can rip a system apart ala mountains of Hispaniola or Mexico. A lot of times through the smaller islands, centers will want to stay over water and will hug or spin just off a coastline often going around even little jut outs. We are going to have to wait a few days to see what happens as it moves between where it is now and the Bahamas. To your question, there's no easy answer. Land interaction could do little, could influence the track some.


If you will recall, Ivan did exactly this dance around an island in 2004 when it went around Jamaica.
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