ATL: HERMINE - Models

[blazess556]

00z Euro ensemble cluster appears to have shifted slightly northward toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico compared to the previous 12z ensembles. Overall, tonight's 00z Op Euro is near the middle of the envelope.

[Blown Away]

The NHC hugging TVCN consensus (Gray Line) has shifted N from upper Keys to near Ft. Lauderdale... If advisories were to be initiated, the NHC has a track record of following the TVCN consensus pretty closely...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[jlauderdal]

The NHC hugging TVCN consensus (Gray Line) has shifted N from upper Keys to near Ft. Lauderdale... If advisories were to be initiated, the NHC has a track record of following the TVCN consensus pretty closely...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

key west to the space coast appears to be first usa "landfall"; if there is something to actually fall on land

track of whatever forms or doesnt seems sensible at this point considering the current state of this system which is messy to say the least...it has a long way to go

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFS closest I've seen to lining up with EURO trackwise thru straights and Keys up thru big bend. The caveat. Still shows a depression at best.

[N2FSU]

06z GFS +90hr

[N2FSU]

+150 hr

[SunnyThoughts]

06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

[Frank P]

06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

[stormwise]

no real change on the ec other than the cyclone rakes along the west coastline of Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF 06z run...117 Hours

[stormlover2013]

Lol it's goes straight into the ridge lol, we will know more tomorrow night!!! That wil be the night where thinks this wave could go

[SouthFLTropics]

06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 126 on HWRF 949mb 27.5 86.5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

[Frank P]

06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.

Well its certainly looking like its heading towards the northern gulf coast, don't recall seeing this model head in that particular direction in recent runs, regardless of strength.. but thanks for posting it..

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 126 on HWRF 949mb 27.5 86.5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

Well this will keep the S2K boards lively for the next few hours at least.

[Bocadude85]

06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.

There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa

[SouthFLTropics]

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.

There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa

I agree with that statement. I think the models may be having a difficult time working out the land interaction as well as the multiple vortices that have been going on with this thing. If it would consolidate a true center then we should stop seeing so many different solutions from the models.

[MississippiWx]

Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....

It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.

There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa

This happens pretty often with the hurricane models. They are locked into a specific system and as the low consolidates, the model will struggle to find it. The low or vort isn't really jumping around on the model.

[BobHarlem]

Going back to Saturday, Sunday and Monday's 12z euro runs, they are dead on for right now. The actual storm's current position is too far south for Tuesday's run and slightly south of yesterday's euro run. Intensity seems to be right on for all but Tuesday's run.

[SunnyThoughts]

That HWRF 06z run is pretty eye popping. Hope that isn't an indication of the other models following suit today.