ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
00z Euro ensemble cluster appears to have shifted slightly northward toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico compared to the previous 12z ensembles. Overall, tonight's 00z Op Euro is near the middle of the envelope.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The NHC hugging TVCN consensus (Gray Line) has shifted N from upper Keys to near Ft. Lauderdale... If advisories were to be initiated, the NHC has a track record of following the TVCN consensus pretty closely...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Blown Away wrote:The NHC hugging TVCN consensus (Gray Line) has shifted N from upper Keys to near Ft. Lauderdale... If advisories were to be initiated, the NHC has a track record of following the TVCN consensus pretty closely...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png
key west to the space coast appears to be first usa "landfall"; if there is something to actually fall on land

track of whatever forms or doesnt seems sensible at this point considering the current state of this system which is messy to say the least...it has a long way to go
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
06z GFS closest I've seen to lining up with EURO trackwise thru straights and Keys up thru big bend. The caveat. Still shows a depression at best.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

no real change on the ec other than the cyclone rakes along the west coastline of Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
HWRF 06z run...117 Hours


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Lol it's goes straight into the ridge lol, we will know more tomorrow night!!! That wil be the night where thinks this wave could go
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Frank P wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Hour 126 on HWRF 949mb 27.5 86.5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Frank P wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.
Well its certainly looking like its heading towards the northern gulf coast, don't recall seeing this model head in that particular direction in recent runs, regardless of strength.. but thanks for posting it..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:Hour 126 on HWRF 949mb 27.5 86.5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
Well this will keep the S2K boards lively for the next few hours at least.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Frank P wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:06Z HWRF model moving wnw I believe in the Gulf 976mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=205
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.
There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Frank P wrote:
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.
There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa
I agree with that statement. I think the models may be having a difficult time working out the land interaction as well as the multiple vortices that have been going on with this thing. If it would consolidate a true center then we should stop seeing so many different solutions from the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Frank P wrote:
Well that is a shift to the left... wonder if that will be the flavor of the day for the models....
It's actually a shift to the right and more organized from the 00z run. 00z didn't have much of anything.
There is still something not right with the HWRF run...it has the low jumping all over the place in the earlier parts of the run...goes from the Bahamas to the coast of Cuba and vice versa
This happens pretty often with the hurricane models. They are locked into a specific system and as the low consolidates, the model will struggle to find it. The low or vort isn't really jumping around on the model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Going back to Saturday, Sunday and Monday's 12z euro runs, they are dead on for right now. The actual storm's current position is too far south for Tuesday's run and slightly south of yesterday's euro run. Intensity seems to be right on for all but Tuesday's run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
That HWRF 06z run is pretty eye popping. Hope that isn't an indication of the other models following suit today.
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