ATL: HERMINE - Models

[South Texas Storms]

18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.

[La Breeze]

18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.

In your honest opinion, IF it makes it to the central Gulf, where do you feel it will head from there? I know it's early and it would be difficult to tell, but in your opinion... thanks.

[BigB0882]

Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?

[South Texas Storms]

18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.

In your honest opinion, IF it makes it to the central Gulf, where do you feel it will head from there? I know it's early and it would be difficult to tell, but in your opinion... thanks.

If it reaches the central Gulf, it could track anywhere from Corpus to Mobile. A lot also depends on how quickly it reaches the central Gulf (if it moves faster, it could make it farther west before it reaches the end of the ridge over the SE U.S.).

[stormwise]

[mcheer23]

Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?

you can see the track here

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[JtSmarts]

Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?

It looks in the last frames to be heading either w or wnw, it's hard to tell exactly.

[BigB0882]

Is it just the map or is the HWRF showing a more compact system than in some previous runs?

[HurriGuy]

The HWRF has the exact same upper air pattern as GFS. It positions it in a favorable position under the upper high. No wonder it explodes in the gulf that run

[PTrackerLA]

It will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro does with 99L now. It seems as though all other models have moved away from bringing whatever this may become up the Florida west coast. I wonder if it will go with a track more out into the Gulf and what intensity that may be.

[ROCK]

It will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro does with 99L now. It seems as though all other models have moved away from bringing whatever this may become up the Florida west coast. I wonder if we will get that goes more out into the central Gulf and what type of storm it may show then.

a large one similar to the 0Z EURO had a few runs ago. this is August and ridges don't just break down all of a sudden. if anything it is a slow process...gives whatever makes it into the GOM more time to marinate....

[stormhunter7]

And there is the swing!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well I have been watching all theses models go this way that back this way. This one stronger than this that and or the other.
Bottom line I am so grateful that I don't need to worry about how to get my boat from the Davits with a broken trailer, TO LAND

[hohnywx]

Looks like the TVCN (aka one of the NHC models of choice) is forecasting a Cat 1 to be approaching the Miss. gulf coast. Obviously the chances of that are slim, but this is why you cannot write off a storm chance.

[ROCK]

Looks like the TVCN (aka one of the NHC models of choice) is forecasting a Cat 1 to be approaching the Miss. gulf coast. Obviously the chances of that are slim, but this is why you cannot write off a storm chance.

TVCN is just a blend of multiple models put together. What we are looking for is a trend in ONE model that is consistent run to run and then watch the others to see if they fall in line. This is how I approach my model watching

EURO
GFS
CMC
UKMET
GFDL
HWRF
NAVGEM

[jasons2k]

The TVCN is an uncorrected consensus model; it's not it's own dynamic model.

[Joe Snow]

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

Model anyone?

[Steve]

NAM 00z maintains vorticity at 850 both south of FL and off the TX/LA border. It's showing a potential strengthening system landfalling in TX 3ish days. Various models have been hinting similar solutions all week. It's not super strong or anything 1010 but the low is evident along with the spin in the rainfall depiction. If you live in the NW Gulf, you might want to take a peek at the NAM.

It also closes off 99L at the surface near the end of the run. Obviously since its for only 84 hours, it doesn't offer a final solution.

[Kazmit]

00z models are all over the place, but a pass through the Florida Straits seems likely.

[stormwise]

Likely reason some of the models are bullish with development in the GOM.

Westward moving equatorial rossby wave. (red)


Predicted mjo/cckw to be moving eastward over the area.