ATL: HERMINE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3041 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:54 pm

18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.
2 likes   

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3042 Postby La Breeze » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:59 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.

In your honest opinion, IF it makes it to the central Gulf, where do you feel it will head from there? I know it's early and it would be difficult to tell, but in your opinion... thanks.
1 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3043 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:59 pm

Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?
1 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3044 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:04 pm

La Breeze wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:18z HWRF really blows it up in the central Gulf at the end of the run. Down to 968 mb by Tuesday evening. Conditions could be quite favorable for strengthening if this disturbance manages to make it into the central Gulf.

In your honest opinion, IF it makes it to the central Gulf, where do you feel it will head from there? I know it's early and it would be difficult to tell, but in your opinion... thanks.


If it reaches the central Gulf, it could track anywhere from Corpus to Mobile. A lot also depends on how quickly it reaches the central Gulf (if it moves faster, it could make it farther west before it reaches the end of the ridge over the SE U.S.).
1 likes   

stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3045 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:06 pm

:uarrow: Image
1 likes   

User avatar
mcheer23
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 436
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
Location: Sugar Land, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3046 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:11 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?



you can see the track here

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
1 likes   

User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1437
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3047 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:15 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can anyone share an image of the HWRF? What heading is it on? Someone said it could be TX bound, are we thinking SETX like some models have hinted or is this a big outlier and going central or south texas?


It looks in the last frames to be heading either w or wnw, it's hard to tell exactly.

Image

Image
1 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3048 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:18 pm

Is it just the map or is the HWRF showing a more compact system than in some previous runs?
1 likes   

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3049 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:19 pm

The HWRF has the exact same upper air pattern as GFS. It positions it in a favorable position under the upper high. No wonder it explodes in the gulf that run
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3050 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:11 pm

It will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro does with 99L now. It seems as though all other models have moved away from bringing whatever this may become up the Florida west coast. I wonder if it will go with a track more out into the Gulf and what intensity that may be.
1 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3051 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:14 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:It will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro does with 99L now. It seems as though all other models have moved away from bringing whatever this may become up the Florida west coast. I wonder if we will get that goes more out into the central Gulf and what type of storm it may show then.


a large one similar to the 0Z EURO had a few runs ago. :wink: this is August and ridges don't just break down all of a sudden. :D if anything it is a slow process...gives whatever makes it into the GOM more time to marinate....
2 likes   

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3052 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:15 pm

Image

Image

And there is the swing!
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3053 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:20 pm

Well I have been watching all theses models go this way that back this way. This one stronger than this that and or the other.
Bottom line I am so grateful that I don't need to worry about how to get my boat from the Davits with a broken trailer, TO LAND
3 likes   

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3054 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:24 pm

Looks like the TVCN (aka one of the NHC models of choice) is forecasting a Cat 1 to be approaching the Miss. gulf coast. Obviously the chances of that are slim, but this is why you cannot write off a storm chance.
2 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3055 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:36 pm

hohnywx wrote:Looks like the TVCN (aka one of the NHC models of choice) is forecasting a Cat 1 to be approaching the Miss. gulf coast. Obviously the chances of that are slim, but this is why you cannot write off a storm chance.


TVCN is just a blend of multiple models put together. What we are looking for is a trend in ONE model that is consistent run to run and then watch the others to see if they fall in line. This is how I approach my model watching :D :D

EURO
GFS
CMC
UKMET
GFDL
HWRF
NAVGEM
3 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3056 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:36 pm

The TVCN is an uncorrected consensus model; it's not it's own dynamic model.
4 likes   

User avatar
Joe Snow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 55
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:02 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3057 Postby Joe Snow » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:49 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3058 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:47 pm

NAM 00z maintains vorticity at 850 both south of FL and off the TX/LA border. It's showing a potential strengthening system landfalling in TX 3ish days. Various models have been hinting similar solutions all week. It's not super strong or anything 1010 but the low is evident along with the spin in the rainfall depiction. If you live in the NW Gulf, you might want to take a peek at the NAM.

It also closes off 99L at the surface near the end of the run. Obviously since its for only 84 hours, it doesn't offer a final solution.
2 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3059 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:53 pm

00z models are all over the place, but a pass through the Florida Straits seems likely.
Image
1 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3060 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:01 pm

Likely reason some of the models are bullish with development in the GOM.
Image
Westward moving equatorial rossby wave. (red)

Image
Predicted mjo/cckw :darrow: to be moving eastward over the area.

Image
Last edited by stormwise on Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests