ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3101 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:40 pm

GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3102 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:41 pm

N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.


Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3103 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:42 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.


Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??



Yes it is! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3104 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:43 pm

What an interesting run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3105 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:43 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.


Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??

It's trying! LOL

+210hr

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3106 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:44 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
centuryv58 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.


Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??



Yes it is! :eek:

Crosses back east at Tampa and heads to the ATL. What a performer this storm is! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3107 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:45 pm

Alyono wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Thanks for posting this. So far, all 0z models are stronger with this system.
were link to ukmet because i see that tropicaltidbits dont have it or go other name


I get the info in my e-mail


There also available to the public here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... e/warnings Atlantic and north-east Pacific (east of 180°)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3108 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:46 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:GFS shows increased intensity, looks like it goes to the MS coastline, puts on the brakes and heads due east to near Apalachicola, then turns southeast.


Is it really coming back to FL since it missed the first time??


Yes, the GFS track wise is kind of reminding me somewhat of Elena in 1985 without the west bend, which mean it wouldn't be without precedent as its happened before

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3109 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:48 pm

+234hr

Intensifies as it moves SE and hits Tampa from the NW. :roll:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3110 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:48 pm

GFS and the CMC really have some better environments over the GOM as they both develop this, CMC being the stronger of the 2. The EURO will be interesting tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3111 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:51 pm

deltadog03 wrote:GFS and the CMC really have some better environments over the GOM as they both develop this, CMC being the stronger of the 2. The EURO will be interesting tonight.


Even the conditions in the Bahamas are better according to the 0Z models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3112 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:51 pm

CMC intensifies it and has a huge shift east, from Texas to about Destin:

+120hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3113 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:52 pm

Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


WTNT82 EGRR 260418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016

<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>

Code: Select all

      NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N  81.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 29.08.2016   72  25.5N  82.5W     1007            24
    1200UTC 29.08.2016   84  25.8N  83.6W     1006            29
    0000UTC 30.08.2016   96  26.0N  85.1W     1003            29
    1200UTC 30.08.2016  108  26.0N  85.8W     1000            37
    0000UTC 31.08.2016  120  26.3N  86.2W      993            41
    1200UTC 31.08.2016  132  26.6N  86.5W      984            59
    0000UTC 01.09.2016  144  27.0N  86.3W      975            62
Last edited by supercane on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3114 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:53 pm

GFS says that 99L/Hermine hits MS/LA first, then Tampa, and then South Carolina all in one run. However, it's the strongest when it hits Tampa from the northwest, not when it sits over the Gulf for 3 days with favorable upper level winds. Lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3115 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:53 pm

Is all the information from the recon and dropsondes in these models or just some of them?

Also can it going in between Cuba and Florida cause the system to consolidate and actually get its act together and once getting into the GoM actually blow up into a monster?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3116 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:53 pm

A trough like that in that position on the GFS would cause an ESE recurve to Florida from the northern gulf so this solution cant be ignored especially if other models start showing it but as of right now no other model shows this solution

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3117 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:53 pm

The 4th Landfall on the GFS

Imagepicture uploading

What's the most amount of landfalls a storm in the U.S has had?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3118 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:54 pm

supercane wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


WTNT82 EGRR 260418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016

<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62


Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3119 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:55 pm

I don't want to imagine 99L still being in the Gulf by NEXT Sunday lol. Probably won't see that next run but the increase in vorticity is notable. Very interested to see the 00z Euro...I assume it received data from the dropsondes as well?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3120 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:57 pm

Blinhart wrote:
supercane wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET stronger

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2016 25.5N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2016 25.8N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2016 26.0N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2016 26.3N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2016 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


WTNT82 EGRR 260418

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2016

<snip to exclude Gaston, Lester, and other storms>

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 25.3N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 72 25.5N 82.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2016 84 25.8N 83.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 30.08.2016 96 26.0N 85.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.08.2016 108 26.0N 85.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 31.08.2016 120 26.3N 86.2W 993 41
1200UTC 31.08.2016 132 26.6N 86.5W 984 59
0000UTC 01.09.2016 144 27.0N 86.3W 975 62


Wouldn't normally a storm with a pressure of 975 be a little bit stronger than 62 Kts?


Not all the time. Isaac was 965mb with only 80mph sustained winds because of it's large size.
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